110 * Marine Minerals: Exploring Our New Ocean Frontier 



as the world economy improved and U.S. grain 

 production increased.^* But depressed agricultural 

 prices and increased operating costs have tended 

 to stabilize demand growth as domestic farmers 

 continue to struggle with the cost-price squeeze. 



Probable domestic demand for phosphate rock 

 is projected to be 52 million tons by 2000, with the 

 low forecast at 50 million tons and the high at 55 

 million tons (table 3-16).^^ However, these forecasts 

 are very uncertain due to global changes taking 

 place in agricultural production. End uses in 2000 

 are expected to remain in about the same propor- 

 tion as current uses. 



From the mid-1970s, when exports represented 

 about 40 percent of domestic production, the 

 proportion of exported phosphate rock, fertilizers, 

 and chemicals increased slowly through 1982 but 

 decreased to its 10-year low by 1985. In 1983, fer- 

 tilizer and chemicals slightly exceeded phosphate 

 rock as export commodities (in terms of contained 

 phosphorus pentoxide).'^ 



Competition for international market share is ex- 

 pected to increase. Economics favors the conver- 

 sion of phosphate rock to higher valued chemicals 

 and fertilizers for export. There is currently a trend 

 in phosphate rock producing countries to expand 

 facilities for processing raw material into intermedi- 

 ate or finished products, particularly among Mid- 

 dle Eastern and North African nations. 



The U.S. share of world markets is expected to 

 continue to decline in the future. Probable annual 

 growth rate for phosphate fertilizer exports through 



'*W. Stowasser, "Phosphate Rock," Mineral Facts and Problems — 

 1985 Edition, BuUetin 675 (Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of Mines, 

 1986), p. 585. 



^^Stowasser, "Phosphate Rock," Mineral Facts and Problems — 

 1985 Edition, p. 591. 



"Stowasser and Fantel, "The Outlook for the United States Phos- 

 phate Rock Industry," pp. 85-116. 



2000 is forecast to be 2 percent, with a low of 1.5 

 and a high of 3 percent.'' Exports of phosphate rock 

 are projected to decline at an annual rate of about 

 1 percent through 2000. In summary, the annual 

 growth rate is expected to approach 0.8 percent 

 from 1983 through 2000. 



Future export levels of phosphate rock and phos- 

 phate fertilizer will be largely determined by the 

 availability of resources from Florida and North 

 Carolina, competition from foreign producers, and 

 an increase in international trade of phosphoric acid 

 rather than phosphate rock. U.S. phosphate rock 

 supply is likely to be sufficient to meet demand 

 through 1995, but demand could exceed domestic 

 supply by 2000 if U.S. producers reduce domestic 

 capacity as a result of foreign competition. 



In addition to the domestic industry's problems 

 with foreign competition and diminishing ore qual- 

 ity and quantity, problems associated with the envi- 

 ronment affect phosphate rock mining and benefic- 

 iation. Environmental concerns include disposing 

 of waste clay (slimes) produced from the benefici- 

 ation of phosphate ores, disposing of phosphogyp- 

 sum from acid plants, developing acceptable recla- 

 mation procedures for disturbed wetlands, and 

 operating with reduced water consumption. 



Industry analysts think the phosphate industry's 

 problems will grow with time. It is likely that the 

 price will not increase enough to justify mining 

 higher-cost deposits, and that the public will con- 

 tinue to oppose phosphate mining and manufac- 

 turing phosphatic chemicals. In that event, the re- 

 maining low-cost, high-quality deposits will 

 continue to satisfy demand until they are exhausted 

 or until the markets for phosphate rock or fertilizer 

 become unprofitable. If domestic phosphate rock 



"Stowasser, "Phosphate Rock," Mineral Facts and Problems — 

 1985 Edition, p. 590. 



Table 3-16.— Forecasts of U.S. and World Phosphate Rock Demand In 2000 



^°°° Annual growt 



Actual Low Probable High 1983-2000 



(million tons) (percent) 



United States 44^ 50 50 60 1.8 



Rest of world 110 220 220 230 4.2 



World total 270 27O 290 3.6 



^U.S. data for 1986, from W. Stowasser, "Phosphate Rock," Mineral Commodity Summaries— 1987 l,VJash\ng\on. DC: U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1987), p. 116. 

 SOURCE: Adapted from W. Stowasser, "Phosphate Rock," Mineral Facts and Problems— 1985 Edition (Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of tilines, 1986), p. 592. 



