(ESSA), and Department of Transportation (FAA 

 and Coast Guard). A description of the way in 

 which the system operates today is presented in 

 Chapter 3. 



A. Ocean Structure Prediction 



Analysis and prediction of sea surface condi- 

 tions are now Umited by the scarcity of surface 

 ocean and weather observations. Similarly, the 

 analysis of ocean thermal structure is data-limited. 

 Present ship-of-opportunity programs can be ex- 

 panded at relatively low cost. Needed data could 

 be provided by additional expendable bathyther- 

 mograph soundings from such ships. Administra- 

 tive mechanisms are already established. Improved 

 prediction of the sea and weather conditions in 

 coastal areas and the Gulf of Mexico could be 

 realized by more extensive instrumentation of 

 offshore platforms. 



Recommendation: 



The ship-of-opportunity program should be ex- 

 panded immediately to provide more surface 

 ocean and weather reports, additional ocean 

 temperature structure data, and more wind sound- 

 ings. Ships operating in regions not covered by 

 major merchant vessel trade routes should be 

 included. Additional instrumentation should be 

 placed on offshore platforms. 



B. Tsunami Warnings 



The Tsunami Warning System's ability to fore- 

 cast tsunami arrival times at Pacific Ocean loca- 

 tions is satisfactory, but tsunami runup forecasts 

 are often grossly in error. To improve system 

 performance we make the following recommen- 

 dation: 



Recommendation : 



Steps should be taken to expand present tide and 

 seismic monitoring stations in the Pacific basin. 

 International communications from South America 

 and the Southwest Pacific should be improved. 

 Additional research on tsunami generation and 

 runup problems should be instituted. 



C. Hurricane Warnings 



The hurricane warning system performs ade- 

 quately within its present constraints. Forecasts of 

 hurricane development and motion, and the hurri- 

 cane-generated storm surge are, however, inade- 

 quate. More extensive hurricane data are needed to 

 test mathematical models. 



Recommendation: 



The Hurricane Warning Service requires expanded 

 data networks. This Service should be accorded 

 high priority to take advantage of the latest 

 technical and operational developments. Addi- 

 tional research is needed to improve our capability 

 to forecast hurricane development and motion. 



D. Sea-Ice Forecasting 



The Navy and Coast Guard each operate sea-ice 

 forecasting programs; ESSA operates a sea-ice 

 mapping program. Ice forecasting has achieved a 

 useful level of accuracy but is severely limited by 

 lack of observational data and basic knowledge. 



Recommendation: 



Research efforts to improve sea-ice forecasting 

 should be expanded; efforts in remote sensing of 

 glacial and sea ice, especially in sensors that can 

 penetrate clouds, are encouraged. Further basic 

 research in energy transfer through the air-ice- 

 water media to yield improved models of forma- 

 tion, growth, drift, deformation, and disintegra- 

 tion of different ice types is required. 



III. NEW TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT 

 PROGRAMS 



Many technological developments are at a stage 

 where they can provide a significant improvement 

 in our ability to observe the environment, to 

 transmit and process the observed data, and to 

 retransmit forecasts. The panel has noted progress 

 in the development of new data-collection plat- 

 forms: satellites and buoys. Remote sensing of the 

 environment from these platforms, as well as 

 aircraft, show great potential. New developments 

 should be pursued to the point of field tests to 

 permit a rational assessment of their future opera- 



n-4 



