Chapter 2 The Need for an Environmental Monitoring and Prediction System 



I. THE NEED FOR OCEAN KNOWLEDGE 



The Nation has a pervasive need for detailed 

 knowledge of the ocean's characteristics and an 

 understanding of their changes in time and space. 



One of the nation's primary concerns in ocean- 

 ography is National security. Those who deploy, 

 route, and operate naval vessels must have detailed 

 data describing the state of the ocean's surface and 

 the currents at different depths. They must have 

 forecasts of the temperature, salinity, and bio- 

 logical composition of the oceans to ensure effec- 

 tive use of sonar. Detailed analysis of the thermal 

 structure is necessary for the interpretation of 

 passive sonar tracking data. The Navy requires 

 forecasts of icebergs and sea-ice for operations in 

 polar and sub-polar waters. For amphibious land- 

 ings, naval forces require forecasts of tide, tidal 

 currents, and surf conditions. 



Another major concern is the protection of hfe 

 and property. A hurricane can generate waves 

 more than 50 feet high that batter whatever lies in 

 their paths. The storm surge driven by hurricane 

 winds erodes beaches, highways, and topples build- 

 ings. Since much of the U.S. densely populated 

 Atlantic and Gulf coasts Ues less than 10 feet 

 above mean sea level, the danger is great. Hurri- 

 cane Beulah, in September 1967, left at least 41 

 people dead, thousands homeless, and more than 

 $1 billion in damage; the storm surge and floods 

 caused most of the damage.' In recent years, mass 

 evacuations have been ordered to save lives along 

 the Gulf coast. 



Tidal waves, or tsunamis, are not generated by 

 winds but by earthquakes. Tsunamis occur most 

 often in the Pacific and are a series of long ocean 

 waves. In deep water these waves are difficult to 

 detect and cannot be seen. They contain tre- 

 mendous energy, and can devastate coastal areas, 

 with waves of 100 feet or more. The Prince 

 William Sound, Alaska, earthquake of 1964 cost 

 approximately 150 lives; almost all the deaths 



were along the Alaska Gulf coast and the U.S. west 

 coast caused by the resulting sea wave.^ 



Figure 2. General view of Kodiak, Alaska, 

 showing damage caused by sea-wave resulting 

 from earthquake, March 28, 1964. (ESSA 

 photo) 



These are the most destructive ocean phenom- 

 ena. But other storms, and the rough seas asso- 

 ciated with them, are also dangerous and these 

 storms can change quickly in intensity. They are a 

 menace to all those operating offshore rigs for the 

 extraction of oil and gas. The threat can be 

 reduced by reliable forecasting of ocean condi- 

 tions. 



In addition to these requirements there are 

 many anticipated future needs for specialized 

 ocean predictions. As sea-bottom habitation and 

 the use of deep-ocean submersibles become reali- 

 ties, deep-ocean forecasts will be required. New 

 transportation developments— surface-effects 

 machines and hydrofoils— will be particularly sensi- 

 tive to sea-surface "roughness" and will require 

 special sea-state forecasts. 



Ocean knowledge can also serve the National 

 economy in many ways. If the state of the oceans, 

 particularly ocean waves and currents, can be 

 predicted, ocean vessels can be routed more 

 efficiently. An example of the vulnerability of 

 major ships to the vagaries of the oceans is the 

 recent loss of the 30,000 ton tanker World Glory 

 off Durban, South Africa, with 22 hands.^ A 

 70-foot high wave, called a "Cape-roller," snapped 



Hurricane Beulah, Preliminary Report with Ad- 

 visories and Bulletins Issued by the Weather Bureau, U.S. 

 Weather Bureau, ESSA, Sept. 29, 1967. 



^A Proposed NATIONWIDE NATURAL DISASTER 

 WARNING SYSTEM (NADWARN), Report with back- 

 ground information prepared by the Natural Disaster 

 Warning Survey Group, ESSA, Department of Commerce, 

 October 1965. 



Daily Bulletin of the American Institute of Marine 

 Underwriters, 99 John Street, New York City, June 17, 

 1968. 



II-9 



