long-term weather "shifts"' i.e. droughts, unsea- 

 sonably warm summers, etc. Figure 4 is a sche- 

 matic estimate of the dependence of atmospheric 

 forecasting on oceanographic data; it shows how 

 increasing amounts of ocean data are required as 

 the time range of a forecast for the atmosphere is 

 increased. 



In regard to forecasting ocean conditions and 

 their effects on fisheries, Schaefer has stated:* 



We are, I believe, on the threshold of being able to 

 do much better, through monitoring of atmo- 

 spheric circulation and heat exchange between sea 

 and atmosphere. . . . These are the principal driv- 

 ing forces on the upper layers of the sea, and the 

 dynamic relationships between them and the 

 ocean circulation are becoming increasingly better 

 understood. It should soon be possible, given an 

 adequate network of stations for observations of 

 the atmosphere over the sea and of the upper layer 

 of the ocean, by automatic unmanned stations 

 (meteorological and oceanographic buoys) both to 

 keep track of what the ocean is doing, in real time, 

 and to forecast changes which will affect the 

 fisheries. 



The relationship between the physical processes 

 of the marine environment and of the atmosphere 

 is so intimate that physical oceanography and 

 meteorology are inextricably bound together. An 

 understanding of the exchange of heat between sea 

 and air— of the ways in which the winds drive the 

 oceans— is integral to the scientific understanding 

 of ocean or atmosphere; and it is integral to 

 forecasting in the ocean and in the atmosphere. 

 Any system for monitoring the oceans and pre- 

 dicting their changes must, therefore, be concerned 

 with atmospheric data, just as any system for 

 monitoring and predicting the weather must be 

 concerned with ocean data. Logic demands a single 

 monitoring and prediction system for the total 

 physical environment. 



Namias, Jerome, Short-Period Climatic Fluctuations, 

 Science, Vol. 147, No. 3659, Feb. 12, 1965, pp. 696-706. 



Schaefer, MUner B., Oceanography and the Marine 

 Fisheries, Canadian Fisheries Reports, No. 5, June 1965, 

 p. 35. 



IV. COMMON ELEMENTS IN ENVIRON- 

 MENTAL MONITORING AND PREDIC- 

 TION 



Not only are the oceans and the atmosphere 

 linked by interacting processes, but the technolo- 

 gies for observing and communicating oceano- 

 graphic and meteorological data have many fea- 

 tures in common. Because of the high cost of 

 acquiring data over the oceans it is necessary to 

 share platforms for observing the ocean and the 

 atmosphere. The Nation cannot afford separate 

 satellite or buoy systems for the acquisition of 

 ocean data and atmospheric data; it cannot afford 

 separate communications systems for oceano- 

 graphic and meteorological data. The marine en- 

 vironmental data acquisition systems and com- 

 munications faciUties must be organized to ensure 

 economical operation. 



The safety and efficiency of any enterprise, a 

 naval force or a fishing fleet or a shore com- 

 munity, depends on the totality of environmental 

 conditions confronted. The fisherman must know 

 the weather and the state of the sea as well as the 

 currents and temperature distribution within the 

 ocean. The coastal homeowner is concerned not 

 only with the atmospheric winds under severe 

 storm conditions but also with the storm surge. 



Our views are not abstract; today's marine 

 environmental monitoring and prediction systems 

 are "integrated." The Navy, operating the Na- 

 tion's most advanced marine environmental mon- 

 itoring and prediction service, conducts many 

 of its weather and ocean forecasting activities 

 jointly at the Fleet Numerical Weather Central, 

 Monterey, California. (See Chapter 3.) Both 

 meteorological and oceanographic data are fed 

 into computers; mathematical models describing 

 both atmosphere and ocean are used to prepare 

 ocean and weather analyses and forecasts. The 

 Navy distributes both oceanographic and meteoro- 

 logical "products" over a single world-wide com- 

 munications system. 



ESSA provides both weather and marine infor- 

 mation on storm surges and sea state through a 

 single forecasting and dissemination system. It also 

 plans to use weather satellites to observe sea 

 surface temperatures. 



Internationally, most ocean data are collected at 

 the same time that weather observations are taken. 

 These observations of the ocean state are com- 



11-13 



