from three oil-drilling platforms in the Gulf of 

 Mexico. Oil companies collect various data in sup- 

 port of the development of engineering design cri- 

 teria. There is a critical need for wave-height data 

 from these offshore installations. Additional plat- 

 forms could be instrumented economically. Plans 

 are already underway to instrument additional 

 Coast Guard navigational buoys and offshore light 

 stations. 



Recommendation : 



The ship-of-opportunity program should be ex- 

 panded immediately to provide more surface 

 ocean and weather reports, additional ocean tem- 

 perature structure data, and more wind soundings. 

 Ships operating in regions not covered by major 

 merchant vessel trade routes should be included. 

 Additional instrumentation should be placed on 

 offshore platforms. 



When the distribution is considered, in addition 

 to the number of observations, it is even clearer 

 that improved ocean data coverage is needed. Ini- 

 tially, expanded programs for collecting such data 

 by ships-of-opportunity, with existing technology 

 as recommended, would constitute a significant im- 

 provement. Further technical developments to 

 improve instrumentation are under way. (See 

 Chapter 5.) In the final analysis other alternatives 

 must also be pursued to provide adequate data 

 from those areas of the world's oceans not 

 routinely visited by merchant or fishing vessels, 

 at an acceptable cost. This is the challenge posed to 

 technology, and to which buoy development and 

 satellite sensor developments are addressed (See 

 Chapter 5.) 



IV. OCEAN CURRENTS 



Present operational surface current forecasting 

 is essentiaUy limited to "persistence" or "clima- 

 tology." At this point we can simply state that 

 expanded research efforts are required. But the 

 reader is referred to Chapter 6, Scientific Limita- 

 tions, where this subject is addressed further. 



V. TSUNAMI 



The panel has evaluated the tsunami warning 

 program and has noted the significant progress 

 since its inception in 1948. The present ability to 



forecast tsunami arrival times at Pacific Ocean 

 locations appears to be adequate, but runup 

 forecasts are often grossly in error. The Tsunami 

 Warning System performance is limited by lack of 

 sufficient near-shore and deep-ocean tidal and 

 seismic data, as well as inadequate theoretical under- 

 standing of energy-focusing processes. Additional 

 instrumentation is required in the Pacific, possibly 

 at island stations, and further development of 

 deep-ocean tidal instrumentation is needed. 



To achieve the required coverage, ESS A esti- 

 mates that the number of tidal stations in the net- 

 work should be tripled (from 40 to 120); the num- 

 ber of seismic monitoring stations should be in- 

 creased by about 50 per cent (from 15 to 25). 

 The present warning doctrine provides magnitude, 

 location, and time of the originating disturbance, 

 to give some measure of the expected threat. 



Recommendation : 



Steps should be taken to expand the present tide 

 and seismic monitoring network in the Pacific 

 basin. International communications from South 

 America and the Southwest Pacific should be im- 

 proved. Additional research on tsunami generation 

 and runup problems should be instituted. 



VI. HURRICANE 



The operational hurricane warning system de- 

 scribed in Chapter 3 performs adequately within 

 present constraints. In part the system's satis- 

 factory performance has been due to the excellent 

 response of the citizenry in the hurricane-prone 

 areas of the country (principally Florida and the 

 Gulf Coast), as well as the cooperation of the mass 

 communication media. The ability to track exist- 

 ing hurricanes by satelUte, aircraft, and shore- 

 based radar is satisfactory. The earth-synchronous 

 satellite (ATS-3) in a "stationary" position over 

 the mid-Atlantic can provide a picture every 20 

 minutes showing the major hurricane areas of the 

 Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic; it will 

 provide a major assist in hurricane tracking. 

 However, improvements in our capability to fore- 

 cast hurricane development and motion, and the 

 storm surge are still urgently required. 



The scope of the operational forecasting activi- 

 ties, as well as each hurricane season's data 

 collection program are limited by present budget 

 levels. 



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