Chapter 9 Payoffs from an Improved Environmental Monitoring and Prediction System 



There are a number of potential payoffs to be 

 obtained from an improved environmental mon- 

 itoring and prediction system. The panel, in review- 

 ing much of the material that has been prepared 

 on this subject, has been forced to recognize the 

 difficulty of prescribing dollar benefits that would 

 be achieved by an improved system— it is indeed 

 difficult to assess the dollar benefits associated 

 with the existing system. This subject will require 

 increasing attention as major expansions, involving 

 relatively large expenditures, are contemplated. 



Several operations which would be improved as 

 a result of the expanded environmental monitoring 

 and prediction system are presented below with 

 limited estimates of dollar benefits. 



I. FISHERIES 



A major ocean-oriented activity affected by the 

 quality of environmental predictions is the fishing 

 industry. Fishing areas are affected by changes in 

 ocean currents, temperature, and other physical 

 and chemical parameters. The fisherman tries to 

 anticipate these changes to improve his efficiency. 

 The individual fisherman can only do this to a 

 limited degree, although in some cases even this is 

 worthwhile. 



Among the parameters that are especially 

 significant to the fisherman are sea-surface and 

 subsurface temperatures, depth of the mixed layer 

 and structure of the thermocUne, and boundaries 

 between water masses. The relationships of the 

 harvestable fish to concentrations of their food 

 organisms is also a potentially useful indicator, 

 although not yet very well developed. For ex- 

 ample, fishermen in the North Sea and Barents Sea 

 can improve their location of herring by their own 

 plankton collection, by exploiting the relationship 

 between herring and the copepod Calanus on 

 which it feeds.' 



Forecasts of the position of critical isotherms 

 (60-66°F) for albacore tuna fisheries off the U.S. 

 Pacific Coast are now issued routinely by the 

 Bureau of Commercial Fisheries, in cooperation 



Schaefer, Milner B., Oceanography and the Marine 

 Fisheries, Canadian Fisheries Reports, No. 5, June 1965, 

 pp. 29-35. 



with the Navy (a sample forecast is attached as 

 Appendix B). Seasonal forecasts are issued in the 

 spring, and are revised by daily advisories during 

 the fishing season. Evidence to date has indicated 

 that the fishing fleet has been able to make 

 profitable use of this information by shifting their 

 operations; processing plants use the seasonal 

 forecasts to schedule their activities and shift 

 sources of supply. 



During one year's operations the major portion 

 of the California albacore tuna fleet moved to 

 their Oregon fishing grounds more than two weeks 

 ahead of their normal schedule, as a result of 

 advisories broadcast by the Bureau of Commercial 

 Fisheries. It was estimated that this shift added 

 approximately 1 ,350 to 1 ,800 tons to the season's 

 catch, with a dockside value of $585,000 to 

 $780,000.^ 



II. OCEAN TRAIMSPORTATION 



The sea remains a major international transport 

 highway, and will probably remain so for many 

 generations. In 1967 imports to and exports from 

 the United States in ocean-borne commerce 

 totalled 386 milUon tons, with a value of $37 

 bilHon.^ The Maritime Administration now esti- 

 mates the annual volume of cargo in international 

 commerce with the United States to be 564 million 

 tons, with a value of $73.5 biUion by 1980.* Many 

 outputs of the environmental monitoring and 

 prediction system have a direct bearing on ship- 

 ping. 



Better surface wave statistics should make it 

 possible to improve the design and lower the cost 

 of new ships; improvements in wave, wind, and 

 current forecasts would permit improved min- 

 imum time ship routings. Improved sea-shore wave 

 and current data should improve the design of 

 harbor facilities. 



Flittner, Glenn A., 1967, Forecasting Availability of 

 Albacore Tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, presented at 

 the 17th Annua) Meeting of the International Commission 

 for the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries, Boston, Massachu- 

 setts, May 30, 1967. 



Statistical Series of the Maritime Administration. 



Internal planning factors developed by Maritime 

 Administration. 



11-63 



