magnitude of this problem can be indicated by 

 data that show that the estimated damage from 

 floods in the United States alone was $4.2 billion, 

 an average of $280 million a year, over the 15-year 

 period from 1946-1960.* Such data alone do not 

 prove that a great benefit could be achieved by 

 improved long-range forecasting, but it is clear that 

 the potential exists for better decision-making 

 based on improved forecasting to achieve sizeable 

 dollar benefits. 



Construction costs could be lowered by 

 scheduhng labor and equipment to take advantage 

 of good weather. The costs of fuels and electric 

 power used in space heating and air conditioning 

 would be reduced if public utilities and fuel 

 producers could plan production, transportation, 

 and storage on the basis of reliable forecasts of 

 warm or cold winters and hot or cool summers. 



There are other, potentially much greater, 

 benefits possible as the result of present-day 

 atmospheric and oceanographic research. Meteor- 

 ologists now believe that we are close to being able 

 to achieve some measure of control over the 

 weather. Hurricanes in the Atlantic and typhoons 

 in the western Pacific are born and nurtured over 

 the oceans. Research efforts are now underway to 

 develop and test methods for blunting the in- 

 tensity of these storms. Again, progress is 

 hampered by a lack of suitable meteorological and 

 oceanographic data. Potential benefits are great. 



IV. REQUIREMENTS FOR COST-BENEFIT/ 

 SYSTEMS STUDIES 



In many areas of decision making, extensive use 

 is made of techniques referred to as "cost- 

 effectiveness analysis" and the closely-related 

 methods of "systems analysis" or "operations 

 research." At the present time, the application of 

 such techniques to environmental problems has 

 been rather limited. The techniques of systems 

 analysis will have to be widely applied to the 

 examination of alternatives in expanding the Na- 

 tion's environmental monitoring and prediction 

 programs. 



Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, 

 UNESCO, Draft of a General Scientific Framework for 

 World Ocean Study, UNESCO, Paris (1964). 



As these alternatives encompass increasingly 

 sophisticated technology with associated cost in- 

 creases, decisions to deploy major systems cannot 

 be based primarily on intuition. The cost asso- 

 ciated with the conduct of appropriate studies 

 represents a relatively small fraction of the cost of 

 some of the new hardware being considered, and 

 becomes a relatively more easily justifiable ex- 

 pense. New technological development should not 

 be delayed, but analyses should be undertaken in 

 parallel to provide a suitable decision-making 

 framework when advanced major systems are 

 ready for implementation. 



The proper selection of alternative schemes for 

 improvement and expansion of the National 

 Environmental Monitoring and Prediction System 

 hinges on an approach that requires three types of 

 studies that are conceptually relatively inde- 

 pendent: 



—Study 1. For the time table being considered, 

 alternative methods of expanding the National 

 Environmental Monitoring and Prediction System 

 should be reviewed; this will primarily include 

 alternative data acquisition systems, but may also 

 include new communications and data processing 

 facihties. The alternatives should be specified in 

 as much detail as possible, including capability and 

 operating cost data. 



—Study 2. For the time period being considered, 

 estimates should be made of the improvement in 

 monitoring and prediction that can be achieved by 

 each of the alternative sub-systems proposed in 

 Study 1 . 



—Study 3. The economic benefits resulting from 

 the improvements in the outputs of the monitor- 

 ing and prediction system obtained in Study 2 

 should be estimated. 



Study 1 would use technical data descriptive of 

 new developments. The study would recognize 

 that, in general, new technology is being considered 

 as an "add-on" to the Nation's existing environ- 

 mental monitoring and prediction system. This 

 investigation should include parametric analysis of 

 new data collection systems, to yield, for example, 

 information on cost as a function of data accuracy 

 so that the trade-off between numbers of systems 

 deployed and data accuracy can be examined. 



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