II. FACTORS RELEVANT TO SATISFYING MANPOWER NEEDS 



There are many variables in the components of the current and anticipated supply/demand situation 

 for the marine field— so many that absolutes become meaningless and one can deal only with 

 relationships and trends. The principal problems are: What is the total demand for persons to be 

 employed in the marine fields? What is the supply of such persons? What are the factors affecting their 

 availability for employment? 



A. Demand 



The demand factor may be considered in either of two contexts— one which assumes continuation of 

 present growth rates and conditions or one which assumes adoption of an expanded National marine 

 program. Currently the major demand for personnel in marine-related fields rests with the Federal 

 Government, because of its own manpower needs and because of its funding for research and related 

 activities. The 1967 lOF study found that of nearly 5,000 persons working in the marine sciences 

 (excluding students), 54 per cent were employed by the Federal Government and another 21 per cent 

 worked for universities, most of which receive substantial Federal support. The obvious corollary is that 

 any estimate of demand in marine science and engineering, even over the next few years, depends largely 

 on the extent of the Federal oceanographic effort. 



State and local agencies and industry are two other principal sources of employment. lOF found that 

 about 300 persons were employed by State and local agencies in marine-related activities, mostly as 

 fisheries managers or fisheries technicians. A total of 560 was employed in private industry, the majority 

 engineers and technicians. 



In years to come, many more personnel may be required by State and local governments in various 

 aspects of coastal zone management. Such persons would need knowledge of planning, economics, law, 

 and political science in addition to oceanography and ocean engineering. In industry there will remain a 

 small but growing demand for personnel trained in marine occupations, at least over the next decade; the 

 rate of growth may well reflect, at least in part, action on the Commission's recommendations. 



The Commission on Marine Science, Engineering and Resources, in its recommendations for National 

 action, is cognizant that one basic cost is manpower. Adoption of the Commission recommendations will 

 increase marine-related employment in the Federal sector and among its grantees and contractors; it will 

 further stimulate economic activity in industry, particularly in the area of marine engineering and 

 technology. 



Incremental operating costs to implement the National marine program recommended by the 

 Commission have been estimated at approximately $450 milhon in 1973, $675 million by 1977, and 

 about $850 million by 1980. With a standard yardstick of $50,000 per professional worker in the marine 

 field (a rough average for present costs based on staff study), 9,000 new personnel would be needed in 

 marine-related fields by 1973, another 4,500 by 1977, and 3,500 more by 1980-an increment of 

 17,000 persons over the next 1 1 years in the marine fields. 



Demand projections keyed solely to a single budget cannot reflect the many variables which will 

 actually be encountered in staffing to implement an expanded marine program. In the initial phases of 

 the program— while facilities and equipment are being acquired and plans developed— somewhat larger 

 expenditures may be expected per professional worker than during its latter phases when a full com- 

 plement has been assembled. These early phases may also see a greater reliance on persons whose train- 

 ing has not been specifically in marine fields. However, the application of such "rules of thumb" as 

 the $50,000 factor provides at least an order of magnitude starting point to more detailed analysis of 

 manpower requirements. 



IV-4 



