Nuclear Power (Mw heat) 
108 
10> 
i960 1970- 1980 1990 2000 
Year 
FIG. 1. Predicted U. S. nuclear power 
(heat) generation, assuming 8-fold in- 
crease by 2000, and half of plants 
built in 2000 are nuclear 
2,000 Mwd/ton 
5 “4,000 Mwd/ton 
“10,000 Mwd/ton 
Processing Capacity (metric tons/day) 
roy 
0.4 
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 
Year 
a 33 100 300 700 
Nuclear Power (x 10° Mw heat) 
FIG. 2. Radiochemical-processing-ca- 
pacity requirements. Average irradia- 
tion level (Mwd/ton) of spent reactor 
fuel is taken as parameter 
10® 
108 
10,000 Mwd/ton 
10* 
4,000 Mwd/ton 
\ 
\ 
2,000 Mwd/ton 
Total Material Processed (metric tons} 
103 
2 
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 
oe Year 
2 . 33 100 300 700 
Nuclear Power { x 10° Mw heat) | 
FIG. 3. Predicted total spent fuel 
processed. Average irradiation level 
of spent fuel (Mwd/ton) is taken as 
parameter 
Economics of Waste Disposal 
By the year 2000, accumulated fission-product activity may be greater than 
3 x 10" curies. 
To dispose of it, the authors estimate a cost 
of $1.60-$64/gal will be permissible for the predicted nuclear-power economy 
By H. R. ZEITLIN,* E. D. ARNOLD, and J. W. ULLMANN 
Chemical Technology Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, ‘l'ennessee 
IN A NUCLEAR-POWER ECONOMY, the 
cost of disposing of reactor fission-prod- 
uct waste will be significant. To deter- 
mine the magnitude of the waste-dis- 
posal problem and to define the limits 
within which the solution must be 
found, we have studied three aspects: 
1. How much waste will accumulate 
by the year 2000? 
2. What fraction of the cost of nu- 
clear power can be economically allo- 
cated to waste disposal? 
3. What are the optimum waste- 
storage (cooling) period and shipment 
weight (including shield) for minimum 
cost? 
* PRESENT ADDRESS: Argonne National 
Laboratory, Lemont, IIl. 
Predicted Accumulated Activity 
Based on a predicted nuclear power 
economy growth rate, calculations have 
been made to determine as a function 
of time the magnitude of several quan- 
tities important to the radiochemical- 
processing and waste-disposal indus- 
tries. Included are such quantities as 
required processing capacity, buildup 
of activity of important fission prod- 
ucts, and accumulated volume of high- 
activity liquid wastes. 
If it 78 assumed that the installed 
electrical plant capacity of the United 
States will increase eight-fold during 
the next 50 years (1, 2), that there will 
be 500 Mw of installed nuclear electric 
capacity in 1960, and that half of all 
new plants built in the year 2000 will be 
nuclear plants, the installed nuclear 
plant capacity, N (Mw), at time T 
(years after 1960) will be 
N = 5,800(1.097 — 1) + 500 
Assuming a thermal efficiency for the 
reactor system of 25%, the heat power 
requirements will be four times as great 
N(Mw heat) = 23,200(1.097 — 1) 
+ 2,000 
This equation is plotted in Fig. 1. 
Differential equations were set up for 
the simultaneous growth and decay of 
various fission products being produced 
by an expanding nuclear economy. 
The solutions give the accumulated 
129 
ll 
stp et he As btes 
