Table 2-12. Simulated trajectories from the Avgo Merchant 



on different initial wind patterns (300 trajec- 

 tories launched for each wind pattern) 



Initial wind pattern 



Probability 

 ashore 



Mean days 

 to land 



Initial wind selected 

 randomly from his- 

 toric winter record 



0.10 



Initial wind northeast 

 10 knots (reported by 

 USCG, December 16) 



0.2A 



Initial wind northwest 

 at 20 knots (reported 

 from Nantucket Light 

 Ship, December 17) 



0.07 



Table 2-13. Simulated trajectories from the Argo Merchant 

 based on different starting dates (300 trajec- 

 tories launched for each month) 



Date 



Probability ashore 

 in U.S. 



December 



January 



February 



March 



April 



May 



June 



July 



August 



0.10 

 0.08 

 0.14 

 0.33 

 0.40 

 0.33 

 0.34 

 0.34 

 0.28 



57 



