- 14 - 



FIGURE 3-1 



SUMMARY OF HIGH AND LOW ASSUMPTIONS 

 USED TO ESTIMATE SEA LEVEL RISE 



Assumption 



Low High 



Population Growth All scenarios assumed the world 



will reach zero population growth 

 by 2075 



Productivity Growth 2.2% per year; 3.5% per year; 



decreases to decreases to 



1.7% by 2100 2.2 % by 2100 



Energy Technologies Best estimate, Best estimates 



Nuclear costs halved 

 arbitrarily. 



Unexpected Additions None None 



To Fossil Fuel Base 



Energy Conservation All Countries Move Toward High Efficiency 



(60% improvement in energy efficiency)- 



Fraction Airborne ( C0 2 ) — 53% ORNL Model; 60% 



increases to 80 % 



Nitrous Oxide 0.2% per year 0.7% per year 



growth growth 



Chlorf luorocarbons Emissions increase Emissions increase 



0.7% of 1980 level 3.8% of 1980 level 

 per year per year 



60-year half-life for CFC1 3 and 120-year 

 half-life for CF 2 Cl2 



Methane 1% per year growth 2% per year growth 



Temperature Sensitivity 1.5°C for C0 2 4.5°C for C0 2 



doubling doubling 



Heat Diffusion of Ocean 1.18 cm^/sec 1.9cm2/sec 



Glacial Discharge Equal to Thermal Twice Thermal 



Expansion Expansion 



