-38- 



CHAPTER 4 

 SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS TO THE YEAR 2100 



This chapter presents our estimates of sea level rise, using 

 the methods described in the previous chapter. It also discusses 

 alternative approaches for projecting sea level rise that yield 

 similar estimates, increasing our confidence in these results. 



Table 4-1 presents the four major scenarios. The low and 

 high scenarios use low and high assumptions, respectively, for 

 each of the factors influencing sea level rise. The two mid-range 

 scenarios use the medium estimate of sea level rise attributable 

 to thermal expansion. However, given the greater uncertainty 

 about snow and ice contributions to sea level rise, the mid-range 

 high and mid-range low use the two-to-one and one-to-one 

 assumptions for glacial contributions to sea level rise, 

 respectively . 



TABLE 4.1 



SCENARIOS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE 

 ( centimeters ) 



Year 



2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 

 Scenario 



High 17.1 



Mid-range high 13.2 



Mid-range low 8.8 



Low 4 . 8 



Current Trends 2.0-3.0 4.5-6.8 7.0-10.5 9.5-14.3 12.0-18.0 



