- 40 



between temperature and sea level. Sea level rise in the last 

 century has been estimated at 10 to 15 cm (4 to 6 inches). 

 The surface temperature rise for the same period has been 

 estimated at 0.4°C. Thus, the ratio of sea level rise to 

 temperature is somewhere between 25 and 37 cm for each degree. 

 Including the effects of trace gases, global warming should be 

 eguivalent to at least a quadrupling of CO2 by 2100, which 

 would raise surface air temperatures by 3.0°C to 9.0° (based 

 on the National Academy of Sciences' range for climate 

 sensitivity, ignoring delays caused by the heat absorbing- 

 capacities of the oceans). Using the 25 cm to 37 cm ratio for 

 the 3°C to 9°C range yields sea level rises of 75 cm to 333 cm, 

 These estimates are in line with those produced by our more 

 elaborate approach. 



One other result is worth noting. Using a time series 

 regression, Chylek and Kellogg estimated a 10 cm to 25 cm sea 

 level rise per 1°C temperature rise. For a temperature rise 

 of the magnitude projected, here, their result is consistent 

 with a sea level rise of 30 cm to 225 cra.V 



END NOTES TO CHAPTER 4 



1. Chylek, Peter, and William Kellogg, 1982. "The Sea Level 

 Climate Connection," unpublished paper, National Center 

 for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. 



