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CHAPTER 6 



RESEARCH NEEDED TO IMPROVE 

 ESTIMATES OF SEA LEVEL RISE 



Little research has been conducted to estimate future sea 

 level rise. Improving the scenarios developed in this report 

 will require appropriate research and accurate monitoring of 

 the underlying physical systems. Although some of the scientific 

 problems may resist solution, a larger and better-focused 

 research effort could solve most of them in time for the resulting 

 information to be useful to coastal decision makers. A key 

 determinant of progress will be the priority society attaches 

 to this research. 



This chapter examines the sources of variation in the 

 estimates of sea level rise, to help identify the most promising 

 opportunities for additional research. It also discusses 

 principles for managing this research. 



MONITORING SEA LEVEL WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT 



The low and high scenarios differ by a factor of six. 

 This range makes it difficult for managers to decide how to 

 reduce the adverse impacts of sea level rise. A "wait and see" 

 approach would eventually reveal which scenario is most accurate. 

 But because most forthcoming decisions cannot be postponed 

 the several decades that this might require, these managers 

 need a smaller uncertainty range. This can be achieved by 

 reducing the uncertainties surrounding the individual assumptions 

 that must be made to project sea level rise. 



