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OPPORTUNITIES EXIST FOR MORE RESEARCH 



The greatest needs are: 



o projecting the transfer of ice and snow from land 

 to sea; 



o estimating the atmospheric changes in the trace gases 

 methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorof luorocarbons; 

 and 



o estimating the sensitivity of the climatic system to 

 atmospheric and other changes. 



As discussed earlier, in response to these findings, EPA, 

 in cooperation with NASA, has already initiated work to improve 

 our understanding of snow and ice melting, oceanic warming 

 around Antarctica, and glacial ice discharge. An inter- 

 disciplinary team of scientists from the Goddard Institute 

 for Space Studies (GISS), NASA, and Lamont Doherty Geological 

 Observatory has formed to improve the scenarios. They will 

 use output from the GISS general circulation models; ice sheet/ice 

 shelf process models; estimates of oceanic changes provided by 

 a southern hemisphere oceanographer ; and a thorough literature 

 review of ice fields. 



In early 1984, another scenario report will be issued 

 that incorporates the results of this project and refines the 

 thermal expansion model so that it reflects a geographically 

 disaggregated absorbtion of heat by the world's oceans. That 

 effort should increase the reliability of the scenarios somewhat. 

 In the longer term, however, more precise and reliable estimates 

 of sea level rise will become available only if efforts are 

 made to improve our underlying knowledge of the relevant 

 natural systems. 



