r 57'- 



o Integrate Atmospheric Chemistry and Climatic 

 Modeling 



Because atmospheric chemistry depends on temperatures 

 and atmospheric mixing, atmospheric chemists and climate 

 modelers must work in closer contact with each other. 



Knowledge of the speed of climatic change and the sensi- 

 tivity of the climatic system to changes in atmospheric composi- 

 tion can be greatly enhanced in several ways. 



o Develop a Better Representation of the Oceans 



Dynamic ocean models can be integrated into general 

 circulation models in realistic ways in the next 10 

 years only if a major, well-funded effort is undertaken. 

 This is critical to producing a more valid geographical 

 distribution of precipitation and temperature changes 

 needed to estimate ice and snow changes. 



o Improve Data on Clouds 



Better observational data, a better theoretical under- 

 standing, and a better computational representation 

 of cloud processes can reduce the uncertainty of the 

 effect that clouds have on thermal sensitivity. 



o Expand Computing Capability 



The acquisition and use of appropriately sized computers 

 would allow more experiments, with different 

 representations of various processes, to be run in 

 general circulation models and also provide greater 

 geographical resolution. These efforts would allow 

 quantification of the uncertainties in regional 

 precipitation, which would considerably improve estimates 

 of ice melting and snowfall. 



Sufficient personnel and resources are available to sustain 



present efforts. Over the longer term, however, progress will 



require training new people. While not particularly costly, 



this process takes time. Delaying its start would diminish 



society's ability to accelerate research later. 



