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APPENDIX B 



MODELS, ANALYTICAL METHODS, AND ASSUMPTIONS 

 USED FOR ESTIMATING THE SCENARIOS OF SEA LEVEL RISE 



Estimating the sea level rise produced by the temperature 

 increases that will be associated with rises in atmospheric 

 concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases required 

 integrating a variety of data, assumptions, and physical and 

 behavioral relationships (see Figure B-l ) . For this integra- 

 tion, three models were used in this study. The first is a world 

 energy and CO2 emission model obtained from the Institute for 

 Energy Analysis (IEA) of the Oak Ridge Associated Universities. 

 The second is a regression equation that simplifies a one-dimen- 

 sional radiative/convect ive atmospheric temperature model obtained 

 from Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 

 (GISS). This model also represents heat flux into the ocean and 

 computes sea level rise from thermal expansion of the ocean 

 layers. The third, used in only some scenarios, is a global 

 carbon cycle model obtained from Dr. William Emanuel of the 

 Environmental Sciences Division, of the Oak Ridge National 

 Laboratory (ORNL). 



All three models were received from their developers in the 

 form of FORTRAN source programs and were installed on the EPA 

 computer located in North Carolina. Throughout this appendix, 

 the models will be referenced as the IEA, GISS, and ORNL models. 



