-88- 



Two special case scenarios were considered: 



Special Cases: 0.5% increase over 100 years and 



0.5% decrease over 100 years 

 A one-half percent decrease in solar luminosity is much 

 greater than would be likely in the time period under considera- 

 tion. However, even such an improbably large variation would not 

 overwhelm the greenhouse effect. 



Diffusion of Heat in the Ocean 



The ocean model consists of a mixed layer of depth H m = 100m 

 and a thermocline with 62 layers and depth H = 900m. The mixed 

 layer temperature is assumed to be independent of depth, while 

 the thermocline temperatures are defined by a diffusion equa- 

 tion with constant thermal diffusivity. The layering is different 

 from that used in the ORNL model, but the difference is not of 

 importance in generating the expansion. 



The temperature change in the mixed layer *( ^ T m ) is a solu- 

 tion of the equation: 



cH m d A T m = F(t) - F D (t) 

 dt 



where c is the heat capacity of water, H m is the depth of the 



mixed layer, F(t) is the heat flux from the atmosphere into the 



ocean and 



FD(t) = - x .aA_I 



z = H 



m 



is the heat flux from the thermocline into the mixed layer, 



