elaborated on by the numerous Weather Service 
coastal offices for hurricanes that affect the United 
States. The information provided to the public in- 
cludes hurricane intensity, expected storm surge 
height, coastal area to be affected, rainfall potential, 
tornado potential, and suggested protective measures. 
The amount of money spent on the hurricane 
warning system is an example of the cost of hazard 
activities. The basic budget for hurricane warnings in 
1978 is $28,359,000, but this does not include any 
part of the cost for the regular forecasting or com- 
munication systems. Included in the budget figure 
are an environmental satellite system, the hurricane 
warning centers, hurricane research, and hurricane 
modification activities. 
Along the coastal zone, flash floods are the major 
threat of flooding not connected to hurricanes. For 
flash floods, an arrangement of watches and warn- 
ings is used. These come from Weather Service of- 
fices and are based on a. variety of factors such as 
the amount of rain, soil saturation, and amount of 
runoff because of development. 
Tornadoes along Gulf coastal areas are primarily 
associated with developing storm systems and fre- 
quently start as waterspouts over the water which 
then move ashore. Tornadoes also are reported along 
the Great Lakes, although cold water suppresses 
development of such storms through most of the 
year. The Weather Service plays the major role in 
prediction and warning through the National Severe 
Storms Forecast Center, which issues the watches. 
Warnings are released by all Weather Service field 
stations. Watches and warnings are released through 
all available news media, especially radio and tele- 
vision. The coverage and release of these warnings 
vary considerably in effectiveness. 
Earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, avalanches, 
and volcanoes are primarily caused by geologic con- 
ditions. Short-term prediction, so that citizens can 
be warned to take protective action, is relatively 
crude for these types of disasters; *** however, sci- 
entists hope for major progress in this area during 
the next decade. The U.S. Geological Survey (in- 
terior Department) has an Earthquake Prediction 
Council that reviews data that could warn of an 
earthquake and issues predictions of earthquakes.1* 
For the next several years, at least, the prediction of 
particular earthquakes will be primarily in a re- 
search and experimental phase. 
Landslides and avalanches cannot usually be pre- 
dicted on an individual basis. Gilbert White and 
134 U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Commerce, Hearings 
on the Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Act of 1975, S. 1174. 
94th Congress, 2nd sess., 1976. pp. 87--90. 
135 U.S. Executive Office of the President, Office of Science 
and Technology Policy, Earthquake Hazards Reduction: Issues 
for an Implementation Plan (draft), pp. 25-32. 
Eugene Haas best describe the “state of the art” 
for both disasters when they note that: 1° 
“Although physical studies and experience 
have provided numerous clues, avalanche 
forecasting is still generally considered an 
art rather than a science. The variables 
that determine when conditions are ripe 
for the triggering of an avalanche are nu- 
merous and complex.” 
In all three cases, however, it is possible to pre- 
dict where the hazards exist. For earthquakes the 
hazards can be delineated through general risk maps 
(which show the potential for damages based on the 
frequency of recorded seismic events), prediction of 
the distribution of strong ground motion of earth- 
quake risk, and identity of ground conditions which 
lead to damage when shaking takes place. Locations 
susceptible to landsliding can be predicted—based 
on soil characteristics, geology, and related natural 
processes—but it is impossible to determine precisely 
the possible magnitude. Likewise, it is possible to 
predict the locations of possible avalanches by the 
signs of previous earth scouring and deforestation. 
The U.S. Geological Survey, National Academy of 
Sciences, and other groups are actively studying 
earthquakes and earthquake prediction. The US. 
Geological Survey has an active Landslide Reduction 
Program, and the U.S. Forest Service conducts re- 
search on avalanches on its land. All this informa- 
tion is now primarily of use in disaster preparation 
and long-term planning, not in short-term prediction 
of particular events. 
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa 
Beach, Hawaii, has the capability of predicting the 
time of arrival of a tsunami,-but it is not possible to 
predict the size, and this problem has led to over- 
warning and some loss of confidence. Information 
on seismic activities is sent to the Center via com- 
munication facilities of the Department of Defense, 
the Federal Aviation Administration, and other 
domestic and foreign agencies. When an earthquake 
of large magnitude occurs in an-area of the Pacific 
that favors the generation of a tsunami, the Pacific 
Tsunami Warning Center forecasts the time of ar- 
rival of the tsunami at selected points. A tsunami 
watch begins as soon as positive evidence of a tsu- 
nami exists; warning bulletins are released with ob- 
served wave magnitudes described and other perti- 
nent information included. These bulletins are sent 
to civil authorities in the five Pacific States, to vari- 
ous civil and military organizations, and watch and 
warning information is supplied to a number of 
foreign governments. The necessary actions needed 
~ 136 Gilbert F. White and J. Eugene Hans, Assessment of Re- 
search on Natural Hazards, Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press, 1975, 
p. 354. 
IV-62 
