believe in the necessity of following these plans. 
Unless citizens react to a warning and evacuate 
the seafront when a hurricane threatens, the plans 
will accomplish little (except lull those responsible 
for the plan into thinking that everything is all right). 
Paul J. Hebert and Glenn Taylor, in their study of 
hurricane experience levels on the Gulf and Atlantic 
coasts, point out that:"° 
“Combined population increases since the 
last major hurricane for each area indicate 
that over 28 million people along the Gulf 
and Atlantic coasts have never experienced 
a direct hit by a major hurricane. This is 
over 75 percent of the Gulf and Atlantic 
coastal residents of the United States. Six 
states have not had a single direct hit by 
a major hurricane in this century, while 
almost 80 percent of the coastal population 
of Florida—the most hurricane-prone state 
have a low hurricane experience level. 
“The main point to be made here... is 
that most of the people who go through 
hurricanes experience either a relatively 
weak hurricane (categories | and 2), or an 
indirect hit (fringe conditions) by a major 
hurricane. Generally less than 25 percent 
have actually felt the most intense central 
core region of a major hurricane. This 
breeds potential disaster by creating a 
sense of false security for 75 percent or 
more of the “experienced” coastal resi- 
dents during the next major hurricane 
situation.” ; 
Plans must be carefully examined to see that they 
are understandable and maintainable on the basis 
of new data and situations. Officials have an obliga- 
tion to formulate plans that will be found reason- 
able and to adjust those plans in response to citizen 
reaction. 
A second type of prediction is just as important, 
if not as dramatic; that is, the type of prediction 
that shows the long-range possibility of hazard, the 
type of hazard, and the magnitude of the danger. 
It is through this type of prediction that successful 
natural hazard management can take place. It re- 
quires historical information, trend studies, hazard 
mapping, development plans for the areas, and a 
wide variety of other information. While much is 
being done in this area, numerous tasks are incom- 
plete or not even started. 
Land Use Management 
The potential importance of land use manage- 
145 U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA, National Weather 
Service. Hurricane Experience Levels of Coastal County Popula- 
tions—Texas to Maine, Washington, D.C., July 1975, p. 9. 
ment and regulation in hazard areas is pointed out 
by Earl J. Baker and Joe Gordon McPhee who say 
that: **° 
“A recurrent theme in dealing with all of 
the natural hazards is the potential of land- 
use management to promote socially desir- 
able use of vulnerable areas in the United 
States. The rapid encroachment in the hur- 
ricane zone of the South Atlantic coast, 
the progressive invasion of industrialized 
flood plains, the design of mobile home 
parks without shelters against tornadoes, 
and the continued building upon land- 
fill in areas of high seismic risk illustrate 
the land-use changes which are occurring 
and which call out for sober consideration 
of risk involved. 
“For each of the geographical hazards it 
is apparent that attention should be given 
to ways in which land use planning may 
contribute to effective use of the soil and 
water resources, candidly examining the 
hard political considerations that shape 
what a community finally does about ex- 
posing itself to risk. In each case a needed 
study of land-use problems is closely linked 
with associated questions of control and 
protective work, warning and emergency 
action, insurance and relief and rehabili- 
tation.” 
Land management can be a key to all of the vari- 
ous parts of natural hazard management because, 
through zoning and control of land use, major 
decisions are influenced as to how densely popu- 
lated hazardous areas will be and what types of 
development and activities will be allowed. These 
factors then prescribe the type of protective struc- 
tures that are economically feasible, the kinds of 
needed evacuation plans, the kind of warning sys- 
tem, and the time when the warning must be received 
(based on escape routes, danger of those routes 
being closed, number of people who must use them, 
etc.), the kinds of damage that will be done and the 
number of lives that will be endangered, the costs 
of insurance and repair, and the length of rehabilita- 
tion for the community (so that it can function as a 
socioeconomic system). It is the control and mitiga- 
tion of these types of problems that forms the basis 
for all programs of natural hazard management and 
mitigation. 
Local governments usually have the primary 
responsibility for land-use management. Among the 
116 Earl J. Baker and Joe Gordon McPhee. Land Use Man- 
agement and Regulation in Hazardous Areas: A Research Assess- 
ment. Boulder, Colo., University of Colorado, Institute of 
Behavioral Science, 1975, p. XI. Much of the following material 
on land use management comes from this monograph. 
IV-64 
