mine response. 



WAVE FORECASTS 



A data link is being established between the U. S. Naval Oceanographic 

 Office and New York University. Within a few months, charts representing 

 the state of the sea as of the last available synoptic chart and as a 30 hour 

 wave forecast will be prepare-^ on a daily basis for transmittal to the Ocean- 

 ographic Office. There are many ways in which such forecasts can be im- 

 proved by modifications in the current procedure, but even as presently 

 given they represent an important advance in providing maritime interests 

 with results of great day to day usefulness. 



Current plans call for providing only significant height and dominant 

 wave directions and periods. When ways to use the full spectral information 

 operationally are developed, more detailed information can be provided. 



One more level of computation should make it possible to provide an 

 ASW group with a detailed prediction of its operational potential for the 

 next day. If the responses of the various naval vessels at sea could be 

 entered in a master file along the lines of the results already available at 

 the David Taylor Model Basin for carriers, it would be possible to guide 

 refeuling operations, search and rescue operations, and predict the move- 

 ment of vessels across the seas. 



It is hoped that these methods will be extended to the North Pacific. 

 Some work on great circle propagation and on ways to handle this much 

 greater oceanic area is under way. The importance of a capability of this 

 nature for the North Pacific and its marginal seas in the present world 

 situation can hardly be underestimated. 



CONCLUSIONS 



To our knowledge, this work represents the first time a wave forecast- 

 ing procedure was developed by first getting the best available data on 

 waves and by employing connputer techniques to develop the wind field and 

 the wave spectrum based on a consistent concept of the way wave spectra 

 change over the ocean. The computer program for the waves can run for 

 the equivalent in real time of a year and by far the best initial conditions 

 for each successive time step are the previously hindcasted spectral values. 

 A synoptic wave recording and wave reporting system would improve the 

 forecasts as would better coverage by ships of the wind field. 



ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 



This program was administered by the U. S. Naval Oceanographic 

 Office under contract N-62306-1042 as part of a BuWeps Airframe Design 

 Division Project (Code RAAD-22). Preparation of this paper was sponsor- 

 ed by the Office of Naval Research under contract Nonr 285(57). 



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