INTRODUCTION 



One of the assigned missions of the U.S. Fleet Numerical Weather 

 Facility (FNWF) at Monterey, California, is to prepare meteorological and 

 oceanographic analyses and forecasts- in support of fleet and other oper- 

 ations throughout the Navy. As the activity's title implies, these products 

 are prepared numerically using the fastest appropriate high-speed elec- 

 tronic computers. The approach used at FNWF has been to apply a 

 combination of dynamic theory and empirical experience to problem solving 

 by computer. In general, only problems which have direct Navy application 

 and which show promise of operational usefulness within one year's time 

 are undertaken at FNWF. In this sense, the developmental efforts at the 

 facility should be called engineering application rather than 'basic 

 research.' 



While early efforts at Monterey were concentrated on atmospheric 

 analysis and forecasting, emphasis has been shifting more and more in 

 the last two years to oceanographic problems and, in particular, to sea- 

 air interactions. The atmosphere and the oceans are considered to be one 

 environment as far as naval operations are concerned. Each of the media 

 affects conditions in the other and their behavior should not, and cannot, 

 be treated independently. 



In this paper we present examples of FNWF oceanographic analyses 

 and predictions and indicate the basic principles used in their derivation. 

 Detailed descriptions of the programs and the theoretical and empirical 

 basis are found in other FNWF publications. It is also demonstrated in 

 this paper that relatively large changes take place in the surface layers 

 of the ocean over short periods of time and. that these changes are mainly 

 caused by atmospheric forces. Hence it is shown that oceanographic 

 analysis should be carried out in relatively short time intervals, compat- 

 ible to synoptic meteorological analysis frequencies and that successful 

 oceanographic analyses and forecasts should be done in connection with 

 meteorological ones. It can be easily demonstrated that the 5-day com- 

 posite oceanographic analyses, done by some institutions, present neither 

 the initial nor the final nor average conditions and that 14-day and longer 

 analyses of past data of some elements approach the mean past conditions . 



THE FNWF SCHEME FOR OCEANOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION 



Figure 1 outlines the scheme developed at Monterey for numerical 

 analysis and prediction of oceanographic elements and processes (see 

 FrsTWE Tech. Memo No. 5). The figure clearly demonstrates the complexity 

 of the numerical program being undertaken by FNWF in the general field 

 of oceanographic analyses and forecasts . This scheme has been developed 

 almost entirely independently of the ASWEPS program and may, in fact, be 

 considered to be competitive. 



Looking first at the column headed Basic Data , one can see that a 

 large part of the input data to this program is derived from meteorological 



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