THE FORECAST PROBLEM 
than in the shorter-range categories, but a very real 
need also exists in those fields for the evaluation of 
synoptic techniques and the simplification of prognosis 
by the elimination of the less effective synoptic tools. 
It is highly probable, however, that relatively more is 
to be gained in these longer-range forecast categories 
by further statistical studies of the behavior and opera- 
tion of the general circulation than in the shorter- 
range categories where statistics now contribute rela- 
tively little. On the other hand it is quite clear that 
statistics alone cannot contribute fundamentally to the 
basic solution of the problem of long-range weather 
forecasting. It:is exactly in this field that basic research 
in the thermodynamics and mechanics of the general 
circulation, guided by synoptic observational statistics, 
is most necessary at the present time. 
3. The Selection and Training of Weather Forecasters. 
It must be recognized that weather forecasting as prac- 
ticed at present and probably for many years to come is 
essentially empirical and esoteric in nature. As a conse- 
quence of this fact, the practicing weather forecaster, 
whose primary occupation is the routine preparation of 
weather forecasts of the usual types, must draw ex- 
tensively on a fund of highly esoteric knowledge which 
has been gained by long first-hand experience with 
weather forecasting of the type and in the region with 
which he must be concerned. Scientific theory plays 
little part in practical weather forecasting at the pres- 
ent time. Consequently, any forecast service which is 
concerned primarily with the regular issuance of or- 
dinary types of weather forecasts of maximum accuracy 
will. benefit notably by adhering rather strictly to cer- 
tain principles with regard to the selection of profes- 
sional forecasting personnel, in particular as follows: 
a. The empirical and esoteric nature of most weather 
forecasting today places a high premium on the natural 
aptitude of the individual forecaster. This natural apti- 
tude is invariably indicated by a strong liking for and 
sustained interest in weather forecasting for its own 
sake over a long period of time, and can be verified only 
by the routine objective verification of competing prac- 
tice weather forecasters over a considerable period of 
time. It is a mistake to assume that merely because a 
man has passed a good professional course in mete- 
orology creditably and has learned a certain amount of 
theory and practice he will be interested in forecasting 
or successful as a weather forecaster. In many cases he 
will not compare as a practical forecaster with a rela- 
tively untrained meteorologist who is absorbingly in- 
terested in practical weather forecasting. Under the 
pressure of wartime demand many meteorologists who 
were by aptitude and interest entirely unsuited for 
forecasting duty were pressed into it. Quite the con- 
trary is true of the meteorologist whose primary con- 
cern is to do forecasting research. In that case the 
primary requisite is an extensive scientific background, 
including both theoretical training and an interest in 
and some first-hand experience with techniques of 
synoptic analysis and prognosis. 
b. It is highly important that the forecaster’s train- 
ing and synoptic experience be such that he can as- 
743 
similate a maximum amount of practical specific in- 
formation of significance to the prognostic judgment of 
synoptic weather patterns. This can be accomplished 
only if he concentrates his attention on a minimum 
number of basically significant synoptic charts and 
prognostic techniques, rather than by dispersing his 
attention over an elaborate array of synoptic and prog- 
nostic tools. This is the problem of the simplification 
and standardization of forecasting techniques which 
was discussed above. 
c. Weather forecasting is the exacting work of a spe- 
cialist; 1t should be a full-time, long-term job. It may 
very well be combined with or alternated with related 
research in cases where the forecaster is properly 
qualified, and in any case ample opportunity must be 
given the forecaster for complete relaxation from the 
pressure of prolonged forecasting responsibility. In no 
case should responsible forecasting duty be combined 
with or alternated with any unrelated exacting job such 
as administrative or directive work, nor should an im- 
portant forecasting assignment ever be made a tem- 
porary duty to which a man is assigned for a limited 
period, perhaps for two or three years, after which he is 
transferred to something entirely different. In this re- 
spect the military services are frequently particularly 
remiss. 
d. The incentive to hold the good forecaster in his 
job should always be present. Specifically, in civilian 
(civil service) forecasting agencies the rating of fore- 
casting positions should be at least as high as, if not 
higher than, that of comparable administrative or other 
positions which might be open to the forecaster. Ob- 
viously, forecast accuracy should be the first concern 
of any weather bureau. Furthermore, the forecaster 
should be subjected continually to an objective skill 
verification of his performance in competition with other 
official and practice forecasters, and there should not be 
any obstacle to the demotion of a forecaster to other 
work in case of a poor showing in competition over a 
long period of time (at least one year as a minimum). 
In the military weather services it should never be to 
the disadvantage of a successful forecaster to continue 
in his work. In other words, the meteorologist and 
responsible forecaster should always be a civilian 
technical expert, not a commissioned officer. Officers 
must take the responsibility for decisions based on the 
weather forecast, but in no case should the respon- 
sible weather forecaster be a commissioned officer 
whose chance of promotion is impaired by his becom- 
ing or permanently remaining a weather expert. 
The remarks outlined above indicate a few measures 
which should contribute to the standardization and 
moderate improvement of present forecasting perform- 
ance. However, the fundamental problem of achieving 
a reasonably scientific basis for weather forecasting 
will not be solved by any such routine elaboration of 
present techniques as that just outlined. If this funda- 
mental problem is to be solved, that solution will be 
achieved only by basic research into the unsolved prob- 
lems of dynamic meteorology, particularly into the 
thermodynamics of atmospheric circulations, and the 
