848 
statements can be verified without influencing the fore- 
caster in any undesirable way, an important objection 
to verification is removed. Furthermore, forecasts ex- 
pressed in this manner might very well be more useful 
at the same time. As was stated in the section defining 
the verification process, it has been assumed that errors 
of observation are unimportant in practical verification. 
This is not always the case, and further investigation of 
the effect of such errors is needed. Most weather fore- 
casting is so far from perfect that forecasting errors far 
overshadow observational errors, but exceptions may 
be found, for example in visibility forecasting and 
perhaps in other cases. 
There are many other unsolved problems in verifi- 
cation, but on careful analysis it appears that most of 
them are meteorological in nature. As long as our knowl- 
edge of the physics of the atmosphere remains so in- 
complete this state of affairs will be reflected in the 
verification problem. 
REFERENCES 
1. Burrxer, W., ‘‘The Verification of Weather Forecasts.”’ 
Meded. ned. meteor Inst., (B) Deel 1, Nr. 2 (1946). 
2. Brimr, G. W., ‘Verification of a Forecaster’s Confidence 
and the Use of Probability Statements in Weather Fore- 
casting.” U. S. Wea. Bur. Res. Pap. No. 16 (1944). 
WEATHER FORECASTING 
3. Hazen, H. A., “The Verification of Weather Forecasts.’ 
Amer. meteor. J., 8: 392-396 (1891). 
4. Herpxe, P., ‘““Berechnung des Erfolges und der Giite der 
Windstarkevorhersagen im Sturmwarnungsdienst.’’ 
Geogr. Ann., Stockh., 8: 310-349 (1926). 
5. Kurrn, H. J., “Misserfolge des staatlichen Wetterprog- 
nosendienstes in drei Monaten seines Beste iens.’’ Gaea, 
Kéln, 42: 641-652 (1906). 
6. Mutter, R. H., “Verification of Short-Range Weather 
Forecasts (A Survey of the Literature).’’ Bull. Amer. 
meteor. Soc., 25: 18-27, 47-58, 88-95 (1944). 
7. Scumauss, A., ‘Die Trefisicherheit der Prognosen.”’ Wetter, 
28: 68-71, 167-168 (1911). 
8. U.S. Army Air Forces HEADQUARTERS, WEATHER INFOR- 
MATION Brancu, Short Range Verification Program. Re- 
port No. 602, Washington, D. C., 1943. 
9. U. S. Army Arr Forces, ‘Critique of Verification of 
Weather Forecasts.”’ Air Wea. Serv. Tech. Rep. No. 105-6 
(1944). 
10. U. 8. WeatHer Bureau, Methods of Verifying Day-to-Day 
Weather Forecasts. Report by the Special Committee 
on Forecast Verification. Washington, D. C., 1940 (un- 
published). 
11. Wintett, H. C., Auten, R. A., and Namias, J., ‘““Report 
of the Five-Day Forecasting Procedure, Verification and 
Research as Conducted between July 1940 and August 
1941.” Pap. phys. Ocean. Meteor. Mass. Inst. Tech. 
Woods Hole ocean. Instn., Vol. 9, No. 1, 88 pp. (1941). 
