FUR SEALS AND OTHER LIFE, PRIBILOF ISLANDS, I914. 85 



the last 10 years. It is, of course, impossible to predict the future state of the fur 

 market, but with an annual output of considerably ' less than 30,000 skins it is more 

 likely that this figure would be exceeded than otherwise. 



Table No. 7 makes comparison of the number of bulls of six years and over which 

 would be present under the law and the numbers which would be required for the 

 various estimates of cows. It is seen from this that on the basis of the mean estimate 

 of cows, although there would be a slight deficiency of bulls in 191 5, this would sud- 

 denly change to a large excess of over 10,000 in 191 6, which would increase to a surplus 

 of 47,890 in 1921 and maintain a high excess of over 40,000 until 1926. Even the 

 requirements of the maximum estimate are greatly exceeded by those of the law, the 

 excess of bulls in this case being 9,680 in 1916, 46,139 in 1921, and 36,027 in 1926. 

 If comparison is made with the minimum requirements, the excesses are still greater, 

 and it is evident that the operation of the law provides for an excess over any rational 

 estimate that could be made. Using the minimum estimate of cows, and therefore 

 simply assuming an equal rate of increase of males and females but with allowance 

 for the killing permitted by law, it appears that in 1921 there would be 159,428 cows 

 and 53,476 bulls, or exactly three cows for each bull. It is apparent also that the 53,476 

 bulls of 1921, at the conservative ratio of i to 35, would be sufficient for 1,871,660 

 cows, or more than seventeen times the number living in 1914. Such an increase of 

 cows is, of course, impossible. 



Comparisons need not be multiplied, but it may be repeated that the above tables 

 have not been constructed for the purpose of predicting by exact figures the future 

 growth of the herd, but for demonstrating that the effects of the law and of a limited 

 reserving system, estimated by the same method, are very far apart. It is confidently 

 believed that a reserving system based on the principles above outlined might be 

 undertaken at once with perfect safety. Although the exact percentages shown by 

 the foregoing tables may need alteration as new information is obtained, there is not 

 the shghtest danger that any shortage of males would result from their adoption for 

 immediate practice. It is therefore plain that in 1915 all males of 3, 4, and 5 years 

 of age might be taken with the exception of reserves of approximately 1,100 5-year- 

 olds, 850 4-vear-olds, and 900 3-year-olds, and that subsequent reserves of 3-year-olds 

 need to increase at no greater rate than 8 per cent per annum. 



METHODS OF DRIVING, KILLING, AND CURING SKINS. 



The main methods now practiced are the results of the experience of many years. 

 To those studying the matter from a viewpoint free from the restrictions imposed by 

 long custom, however, many improvements suggest themselves, mainly in regard to 

 details which have been handed down from a period when modern transportation 

 methods were unknown and the time of laborers considered of little moment, or those 

 which have been demanded by temporary exigencies no longer existent. 



NEED FOR SHORTER DRIVES. 



The seals are forced to carry their skins and meat and most of the butchering is 

 done close to the villages, entailing more or less annoyance from the presence of the 

 decaying offal. Furthermore, the seals are driven distances varying from one to several 



