33° 
as stated above, yet individuals among them moved 
in different directions and with very different speeds. 
It would be found also that the variations from the 
mean with respect to the duration of each eddy, the 
path of the centre, and the intensity of the circulation 
about it, were matters of chance; so that the ordinary 
laws of chance might be applied to determine the prob- 
ability that in a given place and for a given time the 
departure from the mean should lie within assigned 
limits. 5 
Experience ovet the temperate and polar regions 
of the world has proved that on the whole certain 
types of weather are associated with certain surface 
winds, although the particular relation of each to the 
other may vary in different places. 
In order, therefore, accurately to predict the 
weather, it is a matter of foremost importance to 
know what the direction and character of the wind 
will be at the time and place for which the prediction 
is issued. 
This, however, requires not only a knowledge of the 
surrounding conditions at the time of issue, but also 
of the rate at which the conditions are changing, and, 
since the rate follows no known law, predictions 
cannot be held to be trustworthy for more than the 
short time during which the rate may be considered 
to be constant or to change uniformly. 
How long this ‘‘ short time”? may be when reckoned 
in hours or days varies with the type of eddy or 
pressure disturbance. When the depressions are large 
and deep they may retain their life for several days or 
even more, and in such cases their rate of change may 
remain regular for a considerable fraction of that 
time. 
It is in these comparatively rare conditions that the 
best forecasts can be made. Ordinary weather, how- 
ever, is the accompaniment of shallow depressions of 
small intensity and short duration, the regularity of 
the path and rate of change of which cannot be 
counted on for more than a few hours. In such cir- 
cumstances any forecast made for a day in advance 
is almost as likely to be wrong as right, and since 
the shallow depressions are chief occupants of the 
temperate and polar regions it seems that even the 
most complete knowledge of their present state and 
previous history gives very little information as to 
what their condition will be even a few hours later. 
This leads to the conclusion given in the previous 
note, namely, that the information furnished by daily 
weather charts gives a small, but-only a small, advan- 
tage in favour of forecasts made on the strength of 
it over the simple guess that the weather will remain 
as it is. 
In some places, though not in England or its imme- 
diate surroundings, the diurnal variations are more 
important than the general pressure distribution, and 
in mountainous regions impending weather changes 
can often be foreseen from the behaviour of clouds 
about the hills. 
Success, however, in such cases depends essentially 
on local experience and not on general knowledge. 
A. MALLocK. 
The Plumage Bill. 
My attention has been directed to an article in 
Nature of December 11, 1913 (No. 2302, vol. xcii.), 
entitled ‘‘ The Plumage Bill,’”’ by Sir H. H. Johnston, 
in which the following statements are made regarding 
the destruction of bird-life in Nipal :— 
(1) ‘‘ Originally the Nipalese respected almost reli- 
giously the fauna of their native land, like most Indian 
peoples. But of late they have become infected with 
a truly British love of life destruction. | They are 
NO. 2227, OE: oa) 
NATURE 
[JUNE 4, 1914 
incited to this by the agents of the plumage trade in 
Calcutta and other places, and, of course, find it a 
lucrative business.”’ : 
(2) Nipal . . . ‘tis permitted to import and export 
goods through British India under its own Customs” 
seals, intact and unquestioned. 
“Consequently, though the laws of British India 
forbid on paper the export of wild birds’ plumes or 
skins, the State of Nipal monthly exports from Cal- 
cutta to the feather markets of the world—principally 
London—thousands of bird skins. The Nipalese have 
nearly exterminated the Monal pheasant, the Trago- 
pan, and several other gallinaceous marvels.” 
In replying to the above extracts from the article 
in question | am concerned mainly with the implica- 
tion that the Nipal Government, to which I am and 
have for the last eight years been the accredited 
British Representative, are concerned with the destruc- 
tion of bird-life for trade purposes, and are, in fact, 
the principals in the trade of bird feathers and skins. 
Neither the Nipal Government nor any of its 
officials is privileged to export goods through British 
India under the Customs’ seals of the State, and any 
traffic in bird feathers and skins such as is described 
in the article, if it is being carried on at all, must 
necessarily be done in contravention of the British 
Indian Customs Regulations, as no exceptions are 
made in favour of Nipal goods passing through our 
ports. 
The Prime Minister in Nipal, who has seen and read 
the article, has authorised me to state explicitly that 
the Nipal Durbar have no interest whatever in the 
export of feathers from Nipal, and that such export 
is contrary to the laws of the State. 
As regards extract No. (1), it is doubtless true that 
in old days there were fewer birds and animals 
destroyed in the country than at present. Originally 
the religion of the ruling race in the Nipal Valley and 
of a considerable part of what is now the modern 
State of Nipal was Buddhism, in which life is held 
sacred; whereas now the prevailing religion is Hindu 
‘‘Shivaism,”’ and the worship of Durga. Old-fashioned 
bows and arrows have also given way to firearms, 
while the sporting instinct of the Gurkha has in no 
way lessened with the improvement of the weapons 
at his disposal. 
Mv own observation, however, in the hills surround- 
ing the Nipal Valley does not confirm the very wide 
statement that the Monal pheasant, the Tragopan, 
and other gallinaceous marvels of this secluded country 
are in any danger of extinction at present. 
J. MANNERS-SMITH. 
The Residency, Nipal. 
My statements as to the destruction of rare 
pheasants in the kingdom of Nipal were based, first, 
on facts which came to my notice when on or near 
the frontiers of Nipal in 1895, but a good deal more 
on the recent allegations made in the Calcutta Press, 
on the reports of an American ornithologist, and on 
other matter published in the pamphlets of Mr. James 
Buckland, or read by him at his public lectures. 
Much of this evidence was before me when the articles 
(to which Lieut.-Col. Manners-Smith takes exception) 
were written. But as it is difficult for one who writes 
a good deal and on many subjects (and has, moreover, 
in the months that have elapsed been undergoing the 
inconvenience of alterations to his writing-room) to 
keep such evidence so that it can remain always at his 
right hand, I have preferred to take the course of writ- 
| ing to all the persons who furnished these original 
| accounts, asking them to instruct me once again, or 
_ lowed up. 
at any rate to give me references which can be fol- 
As this necessitates writing to America 
— 
