450 
NATOTEE 
[Marcu 7, 1907 
17°-0 at Moyeni, Basutoland, on August 23. The mean 
yearly value of the absolute maxima was 86°-9, and of the 
corresponding minima 41°-6. The mean temperature for 
the year was 0°-9 below the average. The stormiest month 
was October, and the calmest was April. 
We have also received the official meteorological year- 
books for South Australia (1904) and Mysore (1905). Both 
of these works contain valuable means for previous years. 
Forty Years of Southern New Mexico Climate. Bulletin 
No. 59 of the New Mexico College of Agriculture contains 
the meteorological data recorded at the experimental station 
from 1892 to 1905 inclusive, together with results of 
temperature and rainfall observations at other stations in 
the Mesilla Valley for most of the years between 1851 and 
1890, published some years ago by General Greely in a 
“Report on the Climate of New Mexico.’’ The station is 
situated in lat. 32° 15’ N., long. 106° 45’ W., and is 
3868 feet above sea-level. The data have a: general appli- 
cation to those portions of southern New Mexico with 
an altitude less than 4ooo feet. The mean annual tempera- 
ture for the whole period was 61°-6, mean maximum 
(fourteen years) 76°-8, mean minimum 41°-4, absolute 
maximum 106° (which occurred several times), absolute 
minimum 1° (December, 1895). The mean annual rain- 
fall was 8-8 inches; the smallest yearly amount was 
3-5 inches, in 1873, the largest 17-1 inches, in 1905. Most 
of the rain falls during July, August, and September. 
The relative humidity is low, the mean annual amount being 
about 51 per cent. The bulletin was prepared by J. D. 
Tinsley, vice-director of the station. 
Meteorological Observations in Germany.—The results 
of the observations made under the system of the Deutsche 
Seewarte, Hamburg, for 1905, at ten stations of the second 
order, and at fifty-six storm-warning stations, have been 
received. This is the twenty-eighth yearly volume 
published by the Seewarte, and forms part of the series of 
German meteorological year-books. We have frequently 
referred to this excellent ‘series, and the volume in ques- 
tion is similar in all respects to its predecessors; it con- 
tains most valuable data relating to the North Sea and 
Baltic coasts. We note that the sunshine at Hamburg was 
only 29 per cent. of the possible annual amount, and that 
there were 103 sunless days; the rainfall was 25-9 inches, 
the rainy days being 172 in number. 
VOX POPULI. 
ji these democratic days, any investigation into the 
trustworthiness and peculiarities of popular judgments 
is of interest. The material about to be discussed refers 
to a small matter, but is much to the point. 
A weight-judging competition was carried on at the 
annual show of the West of England Fat Stock and 
Poultry Exhibition recently held at Plymouth. A fat ox 
having been selected, competitors bought stamped and 
numbered cards, for 6d. each, on which to inscribe their 
respective names, addresses, and estimates of what the 
ox would weigh after it had been slaughtered and 
““dressed.’? Those who guessed most successfully received 
prizes. About 800 tickets were issued, which were kindly 
lent me for examination after they had fulfilled their 
immediate purpose. These afforded excellent material. 
The judgments were unbiassed by passion and uninfluenced 
by oratory and the like. The sixpenny fee deterred prac- 
tical joking, and the hope of a prize and the joy of com- 
petition prompted each competitor to do his best. The 
competitors included butchers and farmers, some of whom 
were highly expert in judging the weight of cattle; others 
were probably guided by such information as they might 
pick up, and by their own fancies. The average com- 
petitor was probably as well fitted for making a just 
estimate of the dressed weight of the ox, as an average 
voter is of judging the merits of most political issues on 
which he votes, and the variety among the voters to judge 
justly was probably much the same in either case. 
After weeding thirteen cards out of the collection, as 
being defective or illegible, there remained 787 for dis- 
cussion. I arrayed them in order of the magnitudes of 
the estimates, and converted the cwt., quarters, and lbs. 
in which they were made, into lbs., under which form they 
will be treated. 
WO. 1949, VOL. 75 | 
Distribution of the estimates of the dressed weight of a 
particular living ox, made by 787 different persons. 
| | Centiles 
D f : | Ex f 
the length of Retimates Observed Obsened oie 
Array o°—100 Meniatecisorn Normal Normal 
1207 lbs. bee 
| 
c | 
5 1074 SS iaaaa —90 +43 
10 1109 ieee 98 —70 +28 
15 1126 - 81 —57 +24 
20 1148 | = 59 — 46 +13 
9 25 1162 - 45 —37 + 8 
30 1174 — 33 —29 | + 4 
35 IISt ) = Be) — 21 | sy 1G 
40 1188 | = 19 | | =14 +5 
45 1197 = ite) aed BENS) 
ni 5O 1207 | fo) (e) te) 
55 1214 se F oF df o 
60 | 1219 hl wae | +14 - 2 
65 1225 } + 18 ||. 2m eS 
70 1230 + 23 | +29 | =a 
93 75 1236 | 37 = 3 
80 | 1243 | + 36: | +40 —10 
85 1254 | + 47 oy an ee 
90 1267 “+ §2 +70 | =18 
95 1293 + 86 +90 = 4 
91, 73; the first and third quartiles, stand at 25° and 75° resp-ctively- 
wi, the median or middlemost value, stands at 50°. 
‘The dressed weight proved to be 1198 lbs. 
According to the democratic principle of ‘‘ one vote one 
value,’’ the middlemost estimate expresses the vox populi, 
every other estimate being condemned as too low or too 
high by a majority of the voters (for fuller explanation 
see ‘‘One Vote, One Value,’? Nature, February 28, 
p- 414). Now the middlemost estimate is 1207 Ib., 
and the weight of the dressed ox proved to be 1198 Ib. ; 
so the vox populi was in this case 9 lb., or o8 per 
cent. of the whole weight too high. The distribu- 
tion of the estimates about their middlemost value 
was;. of the usual type, so far that they clustered 
closely in its neighbourhood and became _ rapidly 
more sparse as the distance from it increased. 
Diagram, from the tabular values. 
The continuous line i- the normal curve with p.e.=37. 
‘he broken line is drawn from the observations. 
‘The lines connecting them show the differences between the observed 
and the normal. 
But they were not scattered symmetrically. One quarter 
of them deviated more than 45 Ib. above the middle- 
most (3-7 per cent.), and another quarter deviated 
more than 29 Ib. below it (2-4 per cent.), therefore the 
range of the two middle quarters, that is, of the middle- 
most half, lay within those limits. It would be an equal 
chance that the estimate written on any card picked at 
random out of the collection lay within or without those 
limits. In other words, the ‘‘ probable error ’’ of a single 
observation may be reckoned as 3(45+29), or 37 Ib. 
(3-1 per cent.). Taking this for the p.e. of the normal 
curve that is best adapted for comparison with the observed 
values, the results are obtained which appear in above 
table, and graphically in the diagram. 
