October 31, 1901] 



NA TURE 



659 



OUR ASTRONOMICAL COLUMN. 

 Astronomical Occurrences in Novembkr. 

 Nov. 2. 2h. 55m. to 6h. 8m. Transit of Jupiter s Sat. III. 

 3 9h. 33m. Minimum of Algol (j8 Persei). 

 3. I2h. 4m, to I2h. 30m. Moon occults w Leonis 



(mag. 5 '6). 

 6. 6h. 22m. Minimum of Algol (a Persei). 

 9. 7h. 13m. Transit (ingress) of Jupiter's Sat. III. 

 10. Annular eclipse of the sun, invisible at Greenwich. ^ 

 14-15. Epoch of Leonid meteoric shower (radiant 150 



+ 22"). . 



15. 8h. Jupiter in conjunction with moon. Jupiter 



4° 44' S. • 



15. loh. Saturn in conjunction with moon, baturn 



4° -'' S- f M 



15. Venus. Illuminated portion of disc = 0-591. of Mars 



= o'967. 

 i;. l8h. Venus in conjunction with Jupiter. Venus 



z° 45' S. 

 18. I9h. Venus in conjunction with Saturn. \ enus 



3° 12' S. , , 



20. I7h. Mercury at greatest elongation west, 19 42 . 



23. Ilh. 15m. Minimum of Algol (/3 Persei). 



24. Epoch of Andromedid meteoric shower (radiant 24 



+ 43°)- 



25. Sh. ilm. to 9h. om. Moon occults B.A.C. 1240 



(mag. 57)- , r^ ,, o> 



25. I7h. 14m. to iSh. 7m. Moon occults D. M. + IS , 



624 (mag. 5-9). 



26. 8h. 4m. Minimum of Algol (fl Peisei). 



27. loh. 41m. to loh. 54m. Moon occults 71 Ononis 



(mag. 5-1). . , ^ T ■ 



27. iSh. Jupiter in conjunction with Saturn Jupiter 



if 27' S. 



28. I9h. iSm. to 2oh. 6m. Moon occults 68 Geminorum 



(mag. 5'0). 

 30. 9h. 54m. to lOh. 24m. Moon occults k Cancri 

 (mag. 5-0). 

 Period of Mira (0 Ceti).— In the Astroitomische Nach- 

 fichlen (Bd. 157, No. 3745), Herr P. Guthnick classifies many 

 of the available observations of this star, and from them deduces 

 a mean value of the period. Sets of specially bright or faint 

 maxima and minima are grouped together, the frequent long 

 gaps, however, making the detailed form of the light curve 

 somewhat uncertain. The minima may be determined from the 

 formula 



18S3 January 12-09 + 33ld-3359 E. 

 An ephemeris is given showing the predicted times of maxima 

 and minima for the next twenty years. 



Mil 



1901 July 9-0 



1904 March 30^2 



1905 Feb. 25-0 



1906 Jan. 224 

 1906 Dec. 19 6 



1 90 1 March 5-8 



1902 Jan. 31 ■! 

 1902 Dec. 28'5 



1902 Dec. 



1903 Nov. 



1904 Oct. 



1905 Sept, 



1906 Aug. 



24-8 

 2r2 



17-5 

 14-8 



THE POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT OF THE 

 HUMAN BREED UNDER THE EXISTING 

 CONDITIONS OF LA IV AND SENTIMENT.^ 



T N fulfilling the honourable charge that has been entrusted to 

 ■'• me of delivering the Huxley lecture, I shall endeavour to 

 carry out what I understand to have been the wish of its 

 founders, namely, to treat broadly some new topic belonging to 

 a class in which Huxley himself would have felt a keen interest, 

 rather than to expatiate on his character and the work of his 

 noble life. 



That which I have selected for to-night is one which has 

 occupied my thoughts for many years, and to which a large part 

 of my published inquiries have borne a direct though silent refer- 

 ence. Indeed, the remarks I am about to make would serve as an 

 additional chapter to my books on " Hereditary Genius " and on 



1 The second Huxley Lecture of the Anthropological Institute, delivered 

 by Francis Gallon, D.C.L., D.Sc, F.R.S., on October 29, 1901. 



NO. 1670, VOL. 64] 



" Natural Inheritance." My subject will be the possible im- 

 provement of the human race under the existing conditions of 

 law and sentiment. It has not hitherto been approached along 

 the ways that recent knowledge has laid open, and it occupies 

 in consequence a less dignified position in scientific estimation 

 than it might. It is smiled at as most desirable in itself and 

 possibly worthy of academic discussion, but absolutely out of the 

 question as a practical problem. My aim in this lecture is to 

 show cause for a different opinion. Indeed I hope to induce 

 anthropologists to regard human improvement as a subject that 

 should be kept openly and squarely in view, not only on account 

 of its transcendent importance, but also because it afiords excel- 

 lent but neglected fields for investigation. I shall show that 

 our knowledge is already sufficient to justify the pursuit of this 

 perhaps the 'grandest of all objects, but that we know less of 

 the conditions upon which success depends than we might and 

 ought to ascertain. The limits of our knowledge and of our 

 ignorance will become clearer as we proceed. , ^ , . , 



Human Varie/y.—The natural character and faculties of 

 human beings differ at least as widely as those of the domes- 

 ticated animals, such as dogs and horses, with whom we are 

 familiar. In disposition some are gentle and good-tempered, 

 others surly and vicious ; some are courageous, others timid ; 

 some are eager, others sluggish ; some have large powers of 

 endurance, others are quickly fatigued ; some are muscular and 

 powerful, others are weak ; some are intelligent, others stupid ; 

 some have tenacious memories of places and persons, others 

 frequently stray and are slow at recognising. The number and 

 variety of aptitudes, especially in dogs, is truly remarkable ; 

 among the most notable being the tendency to herd sheep, to 

 point and to retrieve. So it is with the various natural qualities 

 that go towards the making of civic worth in man. \V hether it 

 be in character, disposition, energy, intellect, or physical power, 

 we each receive at our birth a definite endowment, allegorised 

 'by the parable related in St. Matthew, some receiving many 

 talents, others few ; but each person being responsible for the 

 profitable use of that which has been entrusted to him. 



DhUibutioH of Qualities in a Nation. -Experience shows 

 that while talents are distributed in endless different degrees, 

 the frequency of those different degrees follows certain statistical 

 laws, of which the best known is the Normal Law of Frequency. 

 This is the result whenever variations are due to the cotribined 

 action of many small and different causes, whatever may be the 

 causes and whatever the object in which the variations occur, 

 just as twice 2 always makes 4, whatever the objects may be. 

 It therefore holds true with approximate precision for variables 

 of totally different sorts, as, for instance, stature of man, errors 

 made by astronomers in judging minute intervals of time, bullet 

 marks around the bull's-eye in target practice, and differences 

 of marks gained by candidates at competitive examinations. 

 There is no mystery about the fundamental principles of this 

 abstract law ; it rests on such simple fundamental conceptions 

 as that if we toss two pence in the air they will, in the long 

 run, come down one head and one tail twice as often as both 

 heads or both tails. I will assume then, that the talents, so 

 to speak, that go to the formation of civic worth are distributed 

 with rough approximation according to this familiar law. In 

 doing so, I in no way disregard the admirable work ot Prot. 

 Karl Pearson on the distribution of qualities, for which he was 

 adjudged the Darwin Medal of the Royal Society a few years 

 ago He has amply proved that we must not blindly trust the 

 Normal Law of Frequency ; in fact, that when variations are 

 minutely studied they rarely fall into that perfect synimeto' 

 about the mean value which is one of its consequences. Never- 

 theless, my conscience is clear in using this law in the way I am 

 about to. I say that z/ certain qualities vary normally, such and 

 such will be the results ; that these qualities are of a class that 

 are found, whenever they have been tested, to vary normally to 

 a fair degree of approximation, and consequently we may infer 

 that our results are trustworthy indications of real facts. 



A talent is a sum whose exact value few of us care to know, 

 although we all appreciate the inner sense of the beautiful 

 parable. I will, therefore, venture to adapt the phraseology of 

 the allegory to my present purpose by substituting for "talent 

 the words " normal-talent." The value of this normal talent in 

 respect to each and any specified quality or faculty is sucli that 

 one-quarter of the people receive for their respective shares more 

 than one normal-talent oz<er and above the average of .all the 

 shares. Our normal-talent is therefore identical with whit is 

 technically known as the " probable error." Therefr .m the 



