October 31, 1901 J 



NA 1 URE 



66' 



V. In that case the regression of the genetic centre goes 

 twice as far back towards mediocrity, and the spread of the 

 distribution among filials becomes nine-tenths of that among 

 the parents, instead of being only three-quarters. The effect is 

 shown in Table IV. 



Table V^ .—Distribution of Sons. (l) One parent of class V., 

 the other unknown. (2) Both parents of class V (from 

 Table //., with decimal point and an o). 



Distribution of Sons 



Position of the filial centre of (i) = 1*44, of (2) = 2-Sg. Wiien bothp.-irents 



There is a difference of fully two divisions in the position of 

 the genetic centre, that of the single V parentage being only 

 a trifle nearer mediocrity than that of the double T. Hence 

 it would be bad economy to spend much effort in furthering 

 marriages with a high class on only one side. 



Marriage of Ltke to Like. — In each class of society there is a 

 strong tendency to intermarriage, which produces a marked 

 effect in the richness of brain power of the more cultured 

 families. It produces a still more marked effect of another 

 kind at the lowest step of the social scale, as will be painfully 

 evident from the following extracts from the work of Mr. C. 

 Booth (i. 38), which refer to his Class A, who form, as has 

 been said, the lowermost third of our " v and below." " Their 

 life is the life of savages, with vicissitudes of extreme hardship 

 and occasional excess. From them come the battered figures 

 who slouch through the streets and play the beggar or the 

 bully. They render no useful service, they create no wealth ; 

 more often they destroy it. They degrade whatever they touch, 

 and as individuals are perhaps incapable of improvement . . . 

 but I do not mean to say that there are not individuals of every 

 sort to be found in the mass. Those who are able to wash the 

 mud may find some gems in it. There are at any rate many 

 very piteous cases. Whatever doubt there may be as to the 

 exact numbers of this class, it is certain that they bear a very 

 small proportion to the rest of the population, or even to Class B, 

 with which they are mixed up and from which it is at times 

 difficult to separate them. . . . They are barbarians, but they 

 are rf handful. . . . ' He says further, " It is much to be 

 desired and to be hoped that this class may become less here- 

 ditary in its character ; there appears to be no doubt that it is 

 now hereditary to a very considerable extent.'* 



Many who are familiar with the habits of these people do not 

 hesitate to say that it would be an economy and a great benefit 

 to the country if all habitual criminals were resolutely segregated 

 under merciful surveillance and peremptorily denied oppor- 

 tunities for producing offspring. It would abolish a source of 

 suffering and misery to a future generation, and would cause no 

 unwarrantable hardship in this. 



Diplomas. — It will be remembered that Mr. Booth's classifica- 

 tion did not help us beyond classes higher than S in civic worth. 

 If a strong and widely felt desire should arise, to discover young 

 men whose position was of the V, \V or X order, there would not 

 be much difficulty in doing so. Let us imagine, for a moment, what 

 might be done in any great University, where the students are in 

 continual competition in studies, in athletics, or in public meet- 

 ings, and where their characters are publicly known to associates 

 and to tutors. Before attempting to make a selection, acceptable 

 definitions of civic worth would have to be made in alternative 

 terms, for there are many forms of civic worth. The number of 

 men of thejV, \V or X classes whom the University was qualified 

 to contribute annually must also be ascertained. As was said, 

 the proportion in the general population of the V class to the 

 remainder is as i to 3CX3, and that of the W class as i in 3000. 

 But students are a somewhat selected body because the cleverest 

 youths, in a scholastic sense, usuallj' find their way to 

 Universities. A considerably high level, both intellectually and 

 physically, would be required as a qualification for candidature. 



NO. 1670, VOL. 64] 



The limited number who had not been automatically weeded 

 away by this condition might be submitted in some appropriate 

 way to the independent votes of fellow-students on the one 

 hand, and of tutors on the other, whose ideals of character and 

 merit necessarily differ. This ordeal would reduce the possible 

 winners to a very small number, out of which an independent 

 committee might be trusted to make the ultimate selection. 

 They would be guided by personal interviews. They would take 

 into consideration all favourable points in the family histories 

 of the candidates, giving appropriate hereditary weight to each. 

 Probably they would agree to pass over unfavourable points, 

 unless they were notorious and flagrant, owing to the great 

 difficulty of ascertaining the real truth about them. Ample 

 experience in making selections has been acquired even 

 by scientific societies, most of which work well, including per- 

 haps the award of their medals, which the fortunate recipients 

 at least are tempted to consider judicious. The opportunities 

 for selecting women in this way arc unfortunately fewer, owing 

 10 the smaller number of female students between whom com- 

 parisons might be made on equal terms. In the selection of 

 women, when nothing is known of their athletic proficiency, it 

 would be especially necessary to pass a high and careful medical 

 examination ; and as their personal qualities do not usually 

 admit of being tested so thoroughly as those of men, it would be 

 necessary to lay all the more stress on hereditary family qualities, 

 including those of fertility and prepotency. 



Cori-elalion between Promise in Youth and subsequent Pciforni- 

 ance. — No serious difficulty seems to stand in the way of 

 classifying and giving satisfactory diplomas to youths of either 

 sex, supposing there were a strong demand for it. But some 

 real difficultyjdoes lie in the question — Would such a classification 

 be a trustworthy forecast of qualities in later life ? The scheme 

 of descent of qualities may hold good between the parents and 

 the offspring at similar ages, but that is not the information we 

 really want. It is the descent of qualities from men to men, 

 not from youths to youths. The accidents that make or mar a 

 career do not enter into the scope of this difficulty. It resides 

 entirely in the fact that the development does not cease at the 

 time of youth, especially in the higher natures, but that faculties 

 and capabilities which were then latent subsequently unfold and 

 become prominent. Putting aside the effects of serious illness, 

 I do not suppose there is any risk of retrogression in capacity 

 before old age comes on. The mental powers that a youth 

 possesses continue with him as a man ; but other faculties and 

 new dispositions may arise and alter the balance of his character. 

 He may cease to be efficient in the way qf which he gave 

 promise, and he may perhaps become efficient in unexpected 

 directions. 



The correlation between youthful promise and performance in 

 mature life has never been properly investigated. Its measure- 

 ment presents no greater difficulty, so far as I can foresee, than 

 in other problems which have been successfully attacked. It is 

 one of those alluded to in the beginning of this lecture as bearing 

 on race-improvement, and being on its own merits suitable for 

 anthropological inquiry. Let me add that I think its neglect 

 by the vast army of highly educated persons who are connected 

 with the present huge system of competitive examinations to be 

 gross and unpardonable. Neither schoolmasters, tutors, oflicials 

 of the Universities, nor of the State department of education, 

 have ever to my knowledge taken any serious step to solve 

 this important problem, though the value of the present 

 elaborate system of examinations cannot be rightly estimated 

 until it is solved. When the value of the correlation between 

 youthful promise and adult performance shall have been deter- 

 mined, ihe figures given in the table of descent will have to be 

 reconsidered. 



.Aiiginentalion of Favoured Stoci. — The possibility of improv- 

 ing the race of a nation depends on the power of increasing the 

 productivity of the best stock. This is far more important than 

 that of repressing the productivity of the worst. They both raise 

 the average, the latter by reducing the undesirables, the former 

 by increasing those who will become the lights of the nation. 

 It is therefore all important to prove that favour to selected 

 individuals might so increase their productivity as to warrant 

 the expenditure in money and care that would be necessitated. 

 An enthusiasm to improve the race would probably express 

 itself by granting diplomas to a select class of young men and 

 women, by encouraging their intermarriages, by hastening the 

 time of marriage of women of that high class, and by pro- 

 vision for rearing children healthily. The means that might 



