356 



NA TURE 



[August ii, 1904 



a man is wholly due to the combined effect of Natural Gifts 

 and of Circumstances. More, however, being included under 

 the title of natural gifts than can influence success, this 

 part may be disregarded. The remainder comprises intel- 

 lectual power, appropriate tastes, a persevering disposition, 

 and iiiuch else, forming a large group which will be briefly 

 termed " Natural Ability." The Circumstances, so far as 

 they affect success, include healthy rearing, family and 

 social influences, education, money, leisure, and surround- 

 ings that encourage work or idleness. 



Men whose histories are known can be sorted with rough 

 fairness, and with little difficulty, into three grades of 

 natural ability, one-third of the whole number being classed 

 as " above mediocrity " and marked +i, another third 

 being classed as " mediocre " and marked o, the remaining 

 third being classed as " below mediocrity " and marked — i. 

 After this has been done and the results recorded, the same 

 men may be sorted afresh and independently into three 

 grades, according to their Circumstances, one-third of them 

 consisting of those whose circumstances conduced to success 

 and are marked -l-i, the other thirds being respectively 

 marked o and — i on the principle already explained. 

 Assuming for the moment (the question will be discussed 

 later on), first, that Natural Ability and Circumstance are 

 independent, and, secondly, that the mark for Success will 

 always be equal to the sum of those for Ability and Circum- 

 stance, then the relation of Success to Ability is easily found. 

 A square table (Table IV.) is made with three columns and 

 three horizontal bands ; it consequently contains nine com- 

 partments. The " arguments " at the head of the several 

 columns will be -f-i, o, — i ; so will be those that precede 

 the several bands. Then an entry is made in each compart- 

 ment equal to the sum of its two arguments. The ne.\t 

 step is to sort the successes in order of their values, annexing 

 to each the various grades of ability that have been associ- 

 ated with it, and to enter the averages of them at the side 

 as in Table V. 



Table TV. — Distrilwlion of Successes, under the assumption 

 that each differs little from thai of the sum of its two variable 

 constituents, and that these vary independently. 



The entrie? in the body of the table represent the Successes. Each is 

 ie sum of iti two arguments, whicli refer respectively to Natural Ability 

 nd to Circumstance. 



Table V.— {Extracted fyovi TahU IV.) 



The result is that the average quantity of exceptional 

 ability which is associated with any given amount of ex- 

 ceptional success is exactly its half. This same conclusion 

 is reached by an a priori argument. Thus, let S, A, C be 

 three independent variables, and S = A(A-|-C). Then if C 

 be unknown, its average value will be mediocrity, that 

 is, =0. Consequently S will on the average be associated 

 with J(A-(-o), that is, with JA. There is a uniform 

 rate of regression towards mediocrity. The same will take 



NO. I 81 5, VOL. 70] 



place if the cases are sorted in such proportions that the 

 mediocrities shall be twice as numerous as either of the 

 extreme groups. The table will then have four columns and 

 four bands, with the arguments -t-i, o, o, — i, and it will 

 have sixteen compartments. The result will still be the 

 same if the mediocrities should be thrice as numerous as 

 either of the extreme groups, and so on. 



The two assumptions that have been made with the 

 purpose of giving a rough idea of what would really occur 

 must now be justified so far as may be. The first assump- 

 tion was that natural ability and circumstance may be treated 

 as independent variables. This position would be in- 

 defensible if we were making a precise analysis, because the 

 two are certainly correlated to some extent. Thus a bright 

 attractive boy receives more favour, and thereby has more 

 opportunities of getting on in life, than a dull and unpleasing 

 one, Dut these advantages are not unmixed with drawbacks ; 

 attractiveness leads to social distractions, such as have 

 ruined many promising careers. The amusing couplet of 

 Henry Taylor is worth quoting : — " Me, God's mercy spared, 

 from social snares with ease Saved by the gracious gift, 

 ineptitude to please." Another instance of correlation is 

 that the disposition to intellectual effort being heritable, a 

 naturally studious boy is frequently brought up in a family 

 whose influence and opportunities develop his natural 

 bent ; similarly as to natural scapegraces. But my returns 

 here and elsewhere show that home influences are much 

 less potent than might be supposed. Many correspondents 

 speak of themselves as the only members of their family 

 who had tastes like their own, and kinsfolk win distinction 

 in many different directions. Moreover, a reaction against 

 the monotony of home influences is often shown bv those 

 strong characters whose tastes are not in complete harmony 

 with them. The correlation between natural aptitude and 

 the circumstances favourable to success is consequently less 

 strict than appears at first sight, and to the best of my 

 judgment is not worth regarding in a rough inquiry. 



The other assumption was that success is .equal 

 to the simple sum of natural ability and favouring 

 circumstance. On the contrary, it must be some 

 highly complex and discontinuous function of it. Still, 

 the fact remains that a gifted child is more likely to 

 succeed under conditions that are on the whole favourable 

 to success than otherwise. The obvious objection that 

 circumstances favourable to the development of one class 

 of mind may be prejudicial to that of another is met bv 

 supposing a preliminary grouping of the men according to 

 their dominant tendencies, scientific, scholastic, artistic, 

 devotional, militant, and so forth, and treating these 

 groups separately, each with its appropriate classification 

 of circumstance. Little more is asked for than that natural 

 ability and circumstance, as reasonably interpreted, shalt 

 be considered cumulative, in a broad and general sense, in 

 their power of leading to success. It follows from this that 

 any " exceptionality " of natural ability will, on the 

 average, be roughly proportional but inferior to the 

 exceptionality of the accompanying success. .Also that the 

 two will agree in direction, good ability going with high 

 success, poor ability with the reverse. Rare exceptions do 

 not invalidate general conclusions, any more than the fact 

 of one boy in a class of schoolmates dying very early or very 

 late invalidates the expectation of life at school ages as 

 calculated by actuaries. 



Exceptionally Gifted Families. — The diagram would 

 assure us, even if we had no other grounds for assurance, 

 that exceptionally gifted families must exist, whose race 

 is a valuable asset to the nation. A few of these have 

 been indicated by the present returns ; they well deserve, and 

 will probably receive, a full description hereafter. It must 

 suffice for the present to mention the existence of at least 

 nine gifted families connected with fellows of the Royat 

 .Society, two or three of whom are exceptionally gifted. 

 I will conclude with the remark that the experience gained 

 through this inquiry has strongly confirmed an opinion ex- 

 pressed in my lecture on Eugenics before the Sociological 

 Society, of which an abstract appeared in these column-i 

 (vol. Ixx. p. 82), namely, that it would be both feasible and 

 advantageous to make a register of gifted families. I have 

 now better hope of being able to carry some such design 

 into effect. Francis Galton. 



