410 
NATURE 
[ MarcH 4, 1897 
menaces us, but by which we are already, in part, over- 
come. In the future, we have to fear not German com- 
petition but that of our own colonists beyond the seas, 
and perhaps that of our American cousins most of all, 
besides that of the cheap labour of the vast populations 
of climes where Europeans cannot work with advantage. 
It is folly to suppose that Lancashire can continue much 
longer to spin cotton forthe world ; but America, Egypt, 
India, Japan and, sooner or later, China also will de- 
prive us of the trade—not Germany, for she will suffer 
proportionally with ourselves. 
It is all very well to congratulate ourselves on a tem- 
porary improvement in our iron trade, and to argue that 
an increase of a few per cent. in our output is more than 
equal to the whole output of a country which, may be, 
is advancing its production at a far greater rate than 
we are; but it cannot be forgotten that we largely im- 
port our iron ores, that fuel is got with increasing 
difficulty, and that wages are likely to rise considerably. 
In America, on the other hand, wages are likely to fall 
rather than rise, and ores and tuel are to hand in in- 
exhaustible quantities, so that it cannot be long ere 
American iron will successfully compete with English 
and foreign.’ In a Trade Review Circular before me, I 
find the words :—“ Tin-plates: The majority of the 
‘orders primarily came from the United States, but every 
day brings us further proof that the time is not far 
distant when this will almost disappear.” We must 
recognise that, at no very distant date, this will have to be 
said of articles of far greater importance than tin-plates. 
It is well known that shipbuilding, long a staple industry 
of this country, is fast being developed, not only in 
Germany, but also in the United States. America is 
bound, in fact, to develop, and not only on account of 
the restless energy of her people: her Government 
departments have attached to them many active men 
engaged in initiating or conducting scientific inquiries ; 
and when the various departments are organised zn/er 
se, the country will have in its service a highly-trained 
body of scientific experts guiding all branches of public 
work, and cooperating to minimise the faults of democracy. 
And universities are arising all over the country, in which 
German models are being followed, not English. It is 
safe to predict that, ere many years are past, the United 
States will suddenly burst into prominence, and prob- 
ably into predominance, as a nation promoting scientific 
inquiries of all kinds, so surely is a foundation being 
laid. Mistakes will frequently be made, perhaps, but 
they will soon be recognised and remedied in a country 
instinct with advance. 
It is useless to consider mere statistics and to con- 
trast the money values of our imports and exports ; we 
must consider rather the extent to which our established 
industries have developed in response to modern require- 
ments, and the extent to which new industries have been 
1 The following paragraph from 7he Ties of March 1, is an interesting 
confirmation of my arguments :— 
THE AMERICAN STEEL Rait TRADE.—With reference to the recent 
break up of the steel rail pool in the United States, it is said that the first 
cost to American makers of such rails is at present $15 per ton, but that 
probably the Carnegie Company's latest improvements in labour-saving 
machinery will enable it to produce them at something like $r2 per ton. All 
steelworks are said to be making a great effort to conquer the European, 
and especially the South American markets, which latter had heretofore 
been almost monopolised by England. . . . With the help of these facilities 
Messrs. Carnegie and Rockefeller believe they will be able to control all 
markets, and to beat English railmakers on their own ground. 
NO. 1427, VOL. 55] 
developed. When this is done, it is difficult—nay, im- 
possible—to resist the conclusion that we are becoming 
less and less capable of helping ourselves, and more and 
more the victims of chance. In the engineering trades, 
which have always necessarily been conducted on fairly 
scientific lines, being based on exact measurements, we 
can still hold up our heads—as witness the marvellous 
development of the cycle industry. But in most, if not 
all those in which chemistry indirectly or directly plays 
a part—and in which does it not?—we are daily getting 
more and more behind the times: the research spirit 
practically does not enter into our industries ; scientific 
method has no real place in most of them. The few 
brilliant exceptions which may be quoted but serve to 
prove this rule. But these are points which entirely 
escape Board of Trade officials and politicians and the 
general public; only those who have to do with our 
manufacturers are aware how entirely conservative and 
unprogressive are their views and actions. 
In English works, as a rule, the sole effective man- 
agement rests with the capitalist and man of business. 
This class of man places himself entirely in the hands of 
his works-manager or foreman, whose doings he too 
often cannot in the least criticise ; and, consequently, a 
commanding position is taken in this country by the so- 
called practical man—one who knows how to do one 
thing, perhaps, very well, but being without scientific 
training and theoretical knowledge cannot advance, and 
if things do not go on as they should, is at a loss to know 
what exactly is wrong. And such men, unfortunately, 
are doing their very utmost, even at the present day, to 
prevent the entry into works of those who, having been 
scientifically trained, are capable of investigating the 
processes in charge of which they are placed, as well as 
of devising improvements and of preventing waste. 
How different is the state of affairs elsewhere. To 
quote evidence given before the Sub-Committee of the 
London Technical Education Board by Dr. Messel, a 
well-known English manufacturer conversant with both 
the foreign and our system, not only is the importance of 
science far more acknowledged by manufacturers abroad 
than it is here, but it is accorded a consulting and 
deliberating voice in the management of their industries ; 
furthermore, at the head of affairs you mostly find people 
who, however little they may now be able to devote 
themselves to scientific pursuits, possess a thorough 
scientific education, which befits them to select such 
scientific assistance (in chemistry, engineering, con- 
struction, &c.) as their work may require, who are 
capable of appreciating it, and who remain in touch with | 
scientific teachers’ teaching and progress. 
As Matthew Arnold wrote in 1874, in the preface to 
the second edition of his “ Higher Schools and Univer- 
sities in Germany”: “German practice is governed by 
the notion that what is to be done, should be done 
scientifically, as they say; that is, according to the 
reason of the thing, under the direction of experts, and 
without suffering ignorance and prejudice to intrude.” 
The same writer, in the first edition of his work pub- 
lished in 1868, remarked : 
“Our rule of thumb has cost us dear already, and is 
probably destined to cost us dearer still. It is only by 
putting an unfair and extravagant strain on the wealth 
