Jan. 15, 1885] 



NATURE 



2 45 



wasteful, open fireplace into the dull, though economical 

 Continental stove. 



The trade in coal and coke, especially to France, Ger- 

 many, Russia, and Sweden, has reached very considerable 

 dimensions, and is, in fact, the fourth most important of 

 our exports. In Column V. it will be noticed that the 

 3,400,000 tons exported in 1S54 have become in 18S3 

 22, >.ooo tons, worth more than 8,000,000/., or in thirty 

 the export of coal has multiplied more than six 

 time-,. Any considerable lessening in this amount would 

 of course seriously affect the balance of our trade with 

 other countries. 



It seems hardly necessary to meet the objection that 

 when our own stores are exhausted we may import coal 

 from other countries. A few considerations will show the 

 fallacy of such reasoning. The nearest stock of coal on 

 which we can hope to draw is that in Canada and the United 

 States. The former supply is plentiful, but much of it is 

 badly situated for exportation. In the United States coal 

 is found in Virginia, Utah, and the Western States, and 

 the basin of the Mississippi and its tributaries contains 

 coal-fields estimated to cover 200,000 square miles, and to 

 contain about 38 times as much available coal as Great 

 Britain. According to Mr. Hull, these fields could as 

 easily supply an output of 2,704,000,000 tons as we can 

 one of 90,000,000. 



Putting aside the commercial difficulties dwelt on by 

 Prof. Stanley Jevons in the way of converting a large 

 export trade in our staple raw material into an immensely 

 larger import trade, the fact that even now the rivalry 

 with the ingenuity and perseverance of the American manu- 

 facturers, aided though we are by their high tariff, demands 

 all our skill and energy, and the almost universal law that 

 manufactures cluster round the source of power, the phy- 

 sical difficulties of such a traffic would be enormous. 

 Suppose a steamer similar to the Faraday capable of 

 carrying 6000 tons, and so swift as to be capable of 

 making 13 trips from America in the year; she would 

 annually bring 78,000 tons of coal, or it would require a 

 fleet of 2100 such ships to supply even our present re- 

 quirements. And if the coal could be supplied to our 

 shipping in American ports at ioj. a ton, we should have 

 annually to pay America S 1,900,000/., an amount not far 

 below our present national income. The further cost of 

 carriage across the Atlantic and delivery in English towns, 

 must raise the price of coal to many times what we at 

 present pay. 



We are brought, then, face to face with the last of the 

 four above-mentioned possibilities. Before very many 

 years are past we must expect that the scarcity of coal 

 in England will cause a considerable rise in price, which 

 will directly affect all such branches of trade and manu- 

 factures as depend upon coal, and indirectly all other 

 branches. 



What this means in the former case will be evident 

 from a brief consideration of the uses to which coal is 

 applied, a few instances of which have already been given. 

 Let us take one instance of the latter class — the importa- 

 tion of food-stuffs. The increase in the population of 

 England per square mile, which was 37 in 1066, 75 in 

 1528, 140 in 1780, 241 in 1831, and 443 in 1 881, higher 

 than any civilised country except Belgium, has taken place 

 far more in manufacturing than in agricultural districts, 

 .md has necessitated a great change in our supply of food. 

 Previous to 1780, though luxuries were imported, the 

 staple food-stuffs, corn, meat, cheese, &c, were produced 

 at home ; now, on the other hand, we import more than 

 one-third of our meat, half of our cheese, and nearly two- 

 thirds of our wheat. Owing to our luxuriousness and to 

 this large importation of food, averaging 212 lbs. annually 

 per head, the average annual cost of food per head in 

 England, 13/. 9*., is higher than that in any other country. 

 When by the scarcity of our coal our pre-eminence in 



heapness of manufactures becomes a thing of the past, the 



means of paying for this food will gradually cease, and the 

 pressure of population, together with the increased cost 

 of the necessaries of life, by emigration, by an increased 

 death-rate, and by a reduced birth-rate, will change the 

 England of to-day into a country like the England of 1780, 

 — a country with a comparatively scanty population, with 

 few manufactures, supporting themselves by the produce 

 of their fields, and looking back on the England of to-day 

 as the Spaniard now looks back on the Spain of Philip II. 

 — of Philip, the husband of Mary of England, the ruler of 

 Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, the Milanese, of Mala- 

 bar, Coromandel, and Malacca — of Philip, whose father 

 had sent Cortez to conquer Mexico, and Pizarro to Peru, 

 and who himself, by the conquest of Portugal, had annexed 

 the valuable province of Brazil. Looking at such a picture, 

 is it impossible that the England which now rules over 

 8,600,000 square miles, containing 283,000,000 inhabitants, 

 should shrink to its former limits of 122,000 square miles, 

 with 8,000,000 inhabitants? 



Finally, let us consider if anything can be done to defer 

 or mitigate this change in the condition of our descendants. 

 After discussing and rejecting the expediency of limiting 

 or taxing our output or export of co il, on the ground that 

 any such measure would impose a serious burden upon 

 our manufactures and commerce, and in fact produce the 

 very result we are trying to avoid, Prof. Stanley Jevons 

 proposed that instead of relieving ourselves by the re- 

 mission of taxation, we should relieve our descendants by 

 making a serious effort to pay off the National Debt. The 

 amount of the debt, which was 900,000,000/. in 1815, was 

 839,918,443/. in 1857, and 756,376,519/. in 18S3. Thus in 

 6S years about 144,000,000/. have been paid off. He pro- 

 posed that the probate, legacy, and succession duties, as 

 being in reality capital and not income, should be applied 

 to this purpose. These duties amounted in 18S3 to about 

 5,600,000/., and would suffice to pay off the National 

 Debt in about 55 years. These proposals have been in 

 part carried out. The amount of taxes remitted has of 

 late years been considerably reduced, and in 1883 termin- 

 able annuities were created, which in 20 years will reduce 

 the debt by 173,000,000/. 



( in the other hand, the rapid increase in local obliga- 

 tions to some extent renders nugatory this attempt at 

 national economy. It is somewhat difficult to obtain 

 accurate data on these points, but the bonds of the Metro- 

 politan Board of Works, of Liverpool, of Manchester, and 

 of Leeds, quoted on the Stock Exchange, represent a sum 

 of 34,000,000/., and no doubt other towns are following 

 far too rapidly in the same direction. Of course some of 

 this expenditure represents profitable enterprises, such as 

 the supply of gas and water, but it is to be feared that a 

 considerable amount has been spent in ways less directly 

 or indirectly remunerative. 



If, then, we are unable to arrest the action of those 

 physical and commercial laws which will press with more 

 and more severity on our descendants, let us do what we 

 can to mitigate their fate by using every exertion to avoid 

 unnecessary increase in our obligations, and to reduce 

 those transmitted by our fathers. It would probably be 

 well also to appoint a fresh Royal Commission to investi- 

 gate more accurately than has yet been done the various 

 data upon which these calculations depend, to make more 

 widely known any improvements made during the last 

 thirteen years which may prolong the duration of our coal, 

 and to consider the most important financial questions 

 which are involved in this inquiry. 



And at last, when the worst comes to the worst, we may 

 take comfort from the thought that, beyond the four seas, 

 new Englands, as yet hardly conscious of their capacities, 

 stretch east and west, and that the New Zealander, who 

 a few years hence may moralise on the last stone of London 

 Bridge, will mingle reverence with his philosophy, for he 

 will be no dark-skinned, far-off cousin, but a ruddy, healthy 

 grandchild. Sydney Lupton 



