426 



NA TV RE 



\Scpf. 13. 1877 



spots, and within Dr. Hunter's "minimum group." He 

 further showed that the rainfall at Madras passed through 

 an eleven years' cycle, corresponding with the cycle of 

 sun-spots. That is to say, the rainfall reaches its mini- 

 mum in the eleventh year, rises to its maximum about 

 half-way through the cycle in the fifth year, and then 

 declines again to its minimum in the eleventh year. The 

 following condensed table shows the results of the six 

 cycles for which records e.xist, from 1810 to 1S76, the 

 Madras register only having been kept, however, from 

 1813:- 



J\hvai Ycars^ Cycle of Siin-Spots and Rainfall at Madras for Six 



Cycles, from 1810 to 1876. 



Average raia^ 



fall in inches, 



registered at 



M.idr.as. 



(18,376) 



{ Eleventh series of years in the 



) cycle of eleven years 



\ First and second series oT years 

 f in the cycle of eleven years... 

 Tliird and fourlh series of years in 



the cycle of eleven years 



Fifth and sixth series of years in 



the cycle of eleven years 



Seventh and eighth series of years 



in the cycle of eleven years 

 Ninth and tenth series of years in 



the cycle of eleven years 



Eleventh series of years in the cycle 



oFeleven years 



37-03 



49'i2 

 54-64 

 52-36 



4902 



Average relative 

 number of 



(Wolf). 

 (.S.0.60.) 



10-9 



39 -S 

 73-4 



S3 7 

 33-5 



37 '03 



10-9 



The general average of rainfall for sixty-four years, from 

 1813 to 1876, is 4851 inches. 



The average relative number of sunspots, calculated on 

 the fifty-one years then available to Dr. Hunter, from 

 iSio to i860, is 38-6S. 



This statement forms one of a series of eleven tables by 

 which Dr. Hunter exhibited the coincidence of the two 

 cycles. In my opinion, and I believe in the opinion of 

 the other professional meteorologists in this country who 

 have examined the evidence thus submitted. Dr. Hunter 

 has established his conclusions as regards Madras, but 

 he carefully abstains from hasty generalisations with 

 reference to other parts of India. I may add, however, 

 that from a careful examination of the rainfall at Bombay, 

 it is evident that there are the clearest indications of a 

 similar general coincidence, while evidence has recently 

 been adduced of a cyclic character of the Calcutta rain- 

 fall, complementary to (although different from) the cycle 

 at Madras. But, adopting Dr. Hunter's cautious estimate 

 of the degree of certitude warranted by his examination 

 (necessarily a partial one) of the Indian rainfall, I think 

 that science may safely make the following replies to your 

 challenge : — 



1. That a period of deficient rainfall may be expected 

 to recur in cycles of eleven years at Madras. 



2. That the deficiency is of so serious a character that in 

 five out of the seven of these cycles occurring within this 

 century up to the present date, the deficiency has sufficed to 

 cause a great famine in Madras. 



3. That the duty imposed by the laws of Nature on the 

 Indian Government is not to make a series of costly 

 spasmodic and unsatisfactory efforts, but to deal with the 

 water-supply in such a way as to meet a regularly 

 recurring deficiency. 



4. That the discovery of the cyclic character of the 

 rainfall clearly points, as regards Madras, to the method 

 to be adopted for this end. In the eleven-years' cycle 

 there is a period, at the extremities, of greatly deficient 

 water-supply — namely, in the eleventh, first, and second 

 years of the cycle. 'I'here is also a period of excessive 

 water-supply in the middle of the cycle — namely, in the 

 fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth years ; and half way 

 between these two periods— that is to say, on each side of 

 the maximum central period — there are vears of inter- 



mediate but ample water-supply — namely, in the third 

 and fourth years on the one side of the central maximum 

 period, and in the ninth and tenth on the other side of it. 

 The following table, taken from' Dr. Hunter's paper, very 

 clearly illustrates this : — 



Average ra'n- Average relative 

 fall in inches, number of 



registered at sun-spots 



, Madras. (WolO. 



(1813-76.) (t8io.6o.) 



Minimum group— eleventh, first, 



and second years 40'39 ... 10-32 



Intermediate group — third and 

 foiirtli with tenth and ninth 



years 49'o7 ... 36-71 



Maximum group — fifth, sixth, 



seventh, and eighth years ... 53'50 ... 63-61 

 5. That the permanent remedy for famine in Madras 

 is, therefore, to deal with the rainfall in its cyclic aspect, 

 and to husband and equalise the water-supply, not merely 

 of the individual year, but of the cycle. 



It is beyond my province to offer any opinion upon the 

 form of hydraulic engineering best adapted to secure this 

 end. But I would point out that while some of our 

 modern Indian canals are principally useful in husband- 

 ing and distributing the water-supply of the year, the old 

 native system of great embanked lakes or reservoirs 

 unconsciously hit the true solution of the difficulty by 

 husbanding and equalising the water-supply of the cycle. 

 I need hardly sxy that we are only at the beginning of 

 this inquiry. What science asks from the Indian Govern- 

 ment is the means of prosecuting it, and foremost among 

 such means is a small solar observatory, for which it is 

 understood that the necessary instruments were sent out 

 to India some years ago, although they have not yet been 

 utilised for this purpose. 



Alexander Buchan, Secretary of the Scottish 

 Meteorological Society. 



THE IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE 

 'T'HIS Association, one of the most active in the 

 -'- kingdom, and which has already done so much to 

 bring the discoveries of science to bear on the iron and 

 steel industries, commences its annual autumn meeting at 

 Newcastle, on Monday, as we have already intimated. As 

 usual, while several important papers are down for reading, 

 much of the time of the meeting, between September 17 

 and 21, will be devoted to visiting some of the many 

 industrial establishments in and around Newcastle. 



The president of the meeting will be Dr. C. W. Siemens, 

 F.R.S., and we notice that in succession to the late Mr. 

 Jones, Mr. James S. Jeans has been appointed general 

 secretary. On the first day the usual formal business will 

 be transacted, the real work of the session commencing 

 on Tuesday, when the Mayor of Newcastle will receive 

 the members in the lecture-room of the Literary and 

 Philosophical Society at half-past 10 A.M., and during the 

 forenoon a selection of papers will be read. After luncheon 

 the remainder of the day will be devoted to visits to 

 various establishments, including Consett Ironworks, the 

 works of Stephenson and Co., R. and W. Hawthorn, 

 Hawks, Crawshay, and Co, the Newcastle Chemical 

 Works, and others. A number of collieries will also be 

 open to the inspection of members, and should a suf- 

 ficient number be found willing to join in an excur- 

 sion to the Roman Wall, it is proposed to organise a 

 party, on Tuesday afternoon, to visit that interesting 

 object, near the residence of Mr. John Clayton, the well- 

 known antiquarian, who has kindly promised to receive 

 the members. 



The forenoons of Wednesday and Thursday will also 

 be devoted to the reading of papers, and the afternoons 

 to visits and excursions. On Wednesday the New Swing 

 Bridge, one of the largest of its kind in the world, will 

 be opened, and afterwards two steamers will take the 



