Sept. 27, 1877] 



NA TURE 



Prof. Bruhns, and Strasburg by Prof. Winnecke on the 



17th and 1 8th respectively, gives the following tlements : — 



Perihelion Passage, September 5 '4 104 Greenwich M.T. 



Longitude of the Perihelion ... m 47 45 ) True equinox, 

 As.-encling Node... 251 45 50 j Sept. 16. 



Inchn.iiion to Ecliptic 7^ 35 5^ 



Log. Perihelion Distance o 1982S2 



Motion — retrograde. 



The middle observation is represented with errors of 

 + 7'' in longitude and — 2" in latitude. 



A few computed positions are subjoined, but they are 

 to be regarded only as rough ones : — 



At i2h. G.M.T. R.A. N.P.D. Distance from 



According to the above orbit the comet will remain 

 visible for many weeks, approaching the earth, thougli 

 receding from the sun, as it descends to the node ; the 

 intensity of light, however, is not likely to much exceed 

 twice its actual amount. The elements do not present a 

 striking similarity to those of any comet previously com- 

 puted. 



It is the fourth comet newly discovered in the present 

 year, the others having been found (i) by M. Borrelly, 

 February 8 ; (2) by Prof. VVinnecke, April 5 ; and (3) by 

 Mr. Swift on April 11. D'Arrest's comet of short period, 

 which has been observed on its fourth return, is to be 

 added to these, and as this comet is still in a position to 

 be observed with our larger instruments a fev/ places are 

 subjoined : — 



At Paris Noon. 



R A. N.P.D. Distance r,om 



h. m. s. o ' tlieianli. 



Sept. 29 ... 4 51 2 ••• ^ 564 ■■• 1425 



Oct. 3 ... 4 51 12 ... 90 32-6 ... f4i6 



„ 7 ••■ 4 50 44 -■ 91 8-5 ... 1-409 



„ II ... 4 49 4> ■•• 9' 435 •■■ '403 



„ 15 ... 4 48 2 ... 92 173 ... I 398 



FAMINES AND SHIPWRECKS 



THE following letter frorn Dr. Balfour Stewart appeared 

 in the Times of Saturday last : — 



I have read with much interest your various articles 

 on Dr. Hunter's researches into the Madras rainfall and 

 the possible connection of famines with sun-spots, and I 

 perceive from the letter in your columns of yesterday by 

 Mr. Henry Jeula, of Lloyd's, that he has found most 

 shipwrecks during periods of maximum solar activity. 



1 consider it a fortunate thing for science that the 

 physics of the sun are now judged of sufficient importance 

 to occupy the attention of the leading journal, inasmuch 

 as ttie duty of the man of science is rather quietly to con- 

 tinue investiga'ing than toendeavour to force prominently 

 before the public the results of his work. 



It has been recognised now (or several years that in 

 this particular case of shipwreck as in others the study of 

 solar phjsics must ultimately lead to results of national 

 importance. In illustration of this I may quote from a 

 lecture delivtred by Mr. Lockyer in October, 1872 

 ('■ Solar Physics," p. 423) ;— 



'• Mr. Mcldrum, a distinguished meteorologist, -who 

 lives, not in the temperate zones of the earth, where the 

 meteorological conditions are irregular, but in the torrid 

 zone, where regular meteorological phenomena, and 

 among them cyclones, abound, tells us that it is no longer 

 correct to merely associate cyclones with the tropics. He 

 tells us that the whole question of cyclones is a question 



of solir activity, and that if we write down in one column 

 the number of cyclones in any given year and in another 

 column the number of sunspots in any given year, there 

 will be a strict relation between them — many sun-spots, 

 many hurricanes ; few sun-spots, few hurricanes. Only 

 this morning I have received a letter from Dr. Stewart, 

 who tells me that Mr. Meldrumhas since found that what 

 is true of the storms which devastate the Indian Ocean 

 is true of the storms wh'ch devastate the West Indies ; 

 and, on referring to the storms of the Indian Ocean, Mr. 

 Meldrum points out that at those years where we have 

 been qDietly mapping the sun-spot maxima the harbours 

 were filled with wrecks, vessels coming in disabled from 

 every part of the great Indian Ocean. Now that surely 

 is something worth considering, because, if we can 

 manage to get at these things, to associate them in some 

 way with solar activity, so that there can be no mistake 

 about it, the power of prediction — that power which 

 would be the most useful one in meteorology, if we could 

 only get at it — would be within our grasp." 



I will, with your permission, make a few remarks on 

 the present position of the problem and on the scientific 

 policy for the luture which this position naturally suggests. 

 In the first place, what are the facts? Without the sun, 

 the atmosphere of our earth would be as dead and in- 

 active as a cotton mill without fire in its boiler. As in 

 the case of such a mill, the work done will depend upon 

 the strength of the furnace fire, so that if the fire be 

 variable the work will vary with it. As regards our earth, 

 we know, to begin with, of two distinct periods of meteo- 

 rological variation. The one of these is due to the change 

 of apparent position of the sun in the heavens caused by 

 the earth's rotation, and its length is one day. The other 

 is due to a similar change caused by the earth's revolu- 

 tion, and its length is one year. If the sun were intrinsi- 

 cally constant we should not be justified in looking for 

 any other variation (unless we attribute some influence to 

 the moon) ; but if the sun be variable in its power we are 

 led to look for a corresponding variation in terrestrial 

 activity. Now we know that the sun is a variable factor. 

 At certain periods his disc is absolutely free from spots, 

 while at others it is studeled with these curious objects. 

 On these last occasions we have other lines of evidence, 

 which lead us to believe in the intense activity of the sun, 

 or, in the forcible language once used by the late Sir J. 

 Herschel to myself, the solar pot seems then to be boiling 

 very rapidly. If we are to reason by analogy at all, the 

 terrestrial pot must follow the solar one, and occurrences 

 denoting a deficiency of energy, such as periodical famines, 

 depending on local failures of vegetable food, will be 

 grouped round years of deficient solar activity, while 

 other occurrences, depending on great energy, such as 

 cyclones and shipwrecks-, will rather follow the periods of 

 maximum solar activity. I have taken two instances 

 (famines and cyclones), but I might have taken others of 

 a more recondite nature, such as the phenomena of terres- 

 trial magnetism, concerning which I believe I am justified 

 in stating that those who work at this branch of science 

 are satisfied that a decided effect has been traced to the 

 variability of the sun as a cause. 



It is quite right that men of science who are pursuing 

 other branches oi inquiry, that statesmen who have to 

 utilise the teachings of science for the benefit of nations, 

 and, permit me to add, editors of powerful journals like 

 your own, should wish that the proof might be of a more 

 absolutely convincing kind than that which has satisfied 

 the workers that they are on the right way. At present 

 the problem has not been pursued on a sufficiently large 

 scale or in a sufficient number of places. In fine, if the 

 attack is to be continued, the skirmishers should give way 

 to heavy guns, and these should be brought to bear 

 without delay now that the point of attack is known. 



There are, of course, two ways of treating the problem. 

 The evidence may be pronounced insufficient and the 



