554 



NATURE 



[Oct. 14, I i 



occurred the great famines of 1837-3S in the North- West 

 Provinces, of 1868-69 'f Rajputana, and of 1S76-77 over 

 nearly the whole of the peninsula of Southern India. 

 These droughts were mainly due to the failure of the 

 soath-west monsoon. The drought of 1865-66, and some 

 of the earlier scarcities in Madras, arose from failures of 

 the rain of the north-east monsoon on the east coast, a 

 failure which in 1865-66 extended into Western Bengal. 

 The famine of 1873-74 in Northern Bengal was excep- 

 tional, and is an instance of a great scarcity suddenly 

 arising in a region of abundant average rainfall. This 

 drought arose from a premature cessation of the rain, 

 apparently due to an abnormal extension to the eastward 

 of the margin of the comparatively dry area of North- 

 western India. 



The Report touches briefly on a part of the subject 

 which we deem of the greatest importance, namely, the 

 supposed periodicity of fluctuations in the rainfall from 

 year to year. These, the Report states, are in all parts of 

 the country very considerable, variations of as much as 

 SO per cent, on either side of the average being often 

 registered. The Commission refer to the opinion of those 

 "qualified by their scientific knowledge to judge of such 

 matters that there is evidence of these fluctuations being 

 in some measure synchronous with those periodical varia- 

 tions in the condition of the sun which are indicated by 

 the varying extent or number of sun-spots ; and the re- 

 curring cycle of about eleven years, with which prolonged 

 observation has shown that the period of sun-spot varia- 

 tion on the average accords, has been thus considered to 

 correspond to the annual variations of the rainfall, the 

 maximum and minimum of the one approximating in 

 period to those of the other." 



Of course the Commission, in the present unsettled 

 state of this all-important question do not feel themselves 

 justified in recommending any anticipatory measures to 

 be taken in view of the probable recurrence of famine, on 

 the basis of this theory. The subject, it is admitted, is 

 scarcely advanced enough to warrant such recommenda- 

 tions. What they do recommend, however, demands the 

 serious attention of the Indian Government. They state 

 that the subject " is one deserving of careful investigation, 

 and that it does not seem contrary to reasonable expecta- 

 tion that some relation should be established between the 

 variations of the rainfall from year to year and those of 

 the conditions of the sun's surface, on the heat derived 

 from which, unquestionably, all terrestrial meteorological 

 phenomena closely depend. For various reasons India 

 is a country in which the investigation of this matter 

 may be carried out with especial facilities, and for 

 this reason (though other grounds are not wanting) 

 we would urge that, as the expense of such researches 

 would be small, the measures which have recently 

 been taken by the Government of India to carry them 

 out should be continued, and even extended in the 

 future." 



" As at present no power exists of foreseeing the atmo- 

 spheric changes effective in producing the rainfall, or of 

 determining beforehand its probable amount in any 

 season, such as would admit of timely precautions being 

 taken against impending drought, the necessity becomes 

 l!ie greater for watching with close attention the daily 

 progress of each season as it passes, for ascertaining with 



accuracy and promptitude the actual quantity of rain in 

 all parts of the country, and for forming the best and 

 earliest judgment possible from the facts as they occur, 

 whether the supply will be sufficient or otherwise. For 

 the present at least, so far as the rainfall directly affects 

 the subject under consideration, these are the only pre- 

 cautions that appear possible. Within the last few years 

 a very satisfactory system of meteorological observations 

 has been established all over British India, and in our 

 opinion it is of primary importance that it shall be 

 maintained in complete efficiency, and shall so far be 

 strengthened and improved as to insure the early and 

 punctual supply of information to the executive govern- 

 ments, and to the officials in all departments concerned 

 with the agriculture of the country or the preparations 

 required to meet famines, as to the actual progress of the 

 periodical seasons of rain in all parts of the provinces for 

 which those governments or officers are respectively 

 responsible. So far as it may become possible, with the 

 advance of knowledge, to form a forecast of the future, 

 such aids should be made use of, though with due 

 caution. 



" We are also satisfied of the importance of the diffusion 

 of more sound and accurate knowledge of the causes and 

 mode of occurrence of the periodical rains, on which the 

 well-being of India is so largely dependent, not only 

 among the officers of the Government, but also among all 

 classes of the community. Any measures which the 

 Government may find possible with a view to the publica- 

 tion and diffusion of such knowledge cannot fail to be 

 highly beneficial." 



We shall look with interest for the further information 

 on this subject, which is promised in the appendix to the 

 Report. We need not add anything in support of the 

 strong recommendation of the Commission. The Govern- 

 ment would certainly not have appointed them at all 

 unless it meant to take action upon their recommendations, 

 and surely no line of inquiry is more promising, or could 

 be fraught with more useful results. If the laws (for 

 there can be no doubt that such exist) which regulate the 

 periodicity of droughts can be clearly ascertained, it would 

 reduce to the limit of simplicity the measure to be 

 adopted either to prevent the occurrence of famines or to 

 be prepared long beforehand to prevent their natural 

 consequences. 



Other recommendations of the Commission are quite 

 in keeping with that to which we have just referred. 

 Tliey advocate the introduction of a more scientific 

 method into administration and statistics, the insti- 

 tution of a separate agricultural department, and the 

 need of improved agricultural, vital, and economical 

 statistics. 



Besides the map already mentioned, there are others 

 showing the extent and comparative severity of the 

 famines in various districts of India, from the beginning 

 of the century downwards. Altogether the Commission 

 have faced their task in a thoroughly business-like and 

 scientific method ; while they have sought information 

 from every quarter likely to yield useful results, they have 

 never lost sight of the object they had in view, and their 

 Report is likely to be of permanent value. We shall look 

 for the further record of their proceedings with the 

 greatest interest. 



