July 12, 1906] 



NA rURE 



257 



do it in the hope that it may perhaps ultimately assist in 

 removing some of them. It is obviously desirable that 

 the charts, which are intended to show the distribution of 

 pressure and temperature, should be derived from observ- 

 ations made at the same hour. Germany observes at eight 

 o'clock of central European time, and France observes 

 simultaneously (or nearly so) by choosing seven o'clock 

 Paris time for its readings. We observe at eight o'clock 

 Greenwich time, which is an hour later. It is the great 

 desire of Continental meteorologists that our standard 

 hour should be seven o'clock; and what prevents it from 

 being so? Chiefly and absolutely the additional cost which 

 the Post Office must claim for the transmission of tele- 

 grams; because messages transmitted before eight o'clock 

 are subject to an additional charge of one shilling, which 

 may be claimed by the postmaster, the claim being possibly 

 increased to two shillings when the postmaster and tele- 

 graphist are different persons. This is prohibitive, but it 

 does not e.\haust the inconvenience of the additional charge. 

 For the purpose of weather forecasting it is clearly neces- 

 sary that telegrams should be received as early as possible 

 by the Meteorological Office. But the eight o'clock rule 

 delays telegrams from some Irish stations, because eight 

 o'clock by Dublin time is 8.25 by Greenwich time, and 

 therefore Irish telegrams may have to wait until nearly 

 half-past eight if they are to be transmitted without extra 

 charge. 



While the international organisation of meteorology is 

 well on its way, though difficulties such as those I have 

 mentioned may temporarily retard it, another question not 

 altogether disconnected with 'it has been raised by Sir John 

 Eliot. This is the establishment of an institution devoted 

 to the collective study of meteorological problems affecting 

 all parts of the British Dominions. It is true, not only in 

 this, but also in other matters, that in order to take our 

 proper position in international work it is necessary that we 

 should set our own house in order, and we must give Sir 

 John Eliot's proposals our hearty support. If I do not 

 enter further into this question it is because I am to-day 

 dealing more especially with problems which go beyond 

 the limits of the Empire. I assume the existence of a 

 national organisation, but lay stress on the insufficiency 

 of this limitation. 



The importance of the subject, however, may be my 

 justification if I direct your attention for a moment to the 

 meteorological question as it presents itself in India. We 

 all know and realise the vital importance of the rainy 

 season, and the benefit which the native population would 

 derive if it were possible to predict, even if only imperfectly, 

 the setting in of the monsoon. It appears that Dr. 

 Walker, the present director of observatories in India, 

 recently obtained very encouraging results in this respect. 

 According to his investigations, a forecast of the monsoon 

 may be derived from a knowledge of the weather during 

 preceding months in dififerent parts of the world. Thus a 

 heavy rainfall in Zanzibar in May is followed by a weak 

 monsoon, while a pressure deficiency in Siberia during the 

 month of March indicates a probable deficiency of rain 

 in India during the following .August. I need not insist 

 on the importance of these results, which at present are 

 purely empirical, and require further confirmation ; but it 

 is quite clear that for the successful prosecution of these 

 inquiries political boundaries must be disregarded, and a 

 system of intercommunication organised between the 

 countries chiefly concerned. Dr. Walker informs me that 

 he has successfully arranged for telegraphic reports to be 

 sent to him at the beginning of June from six different 

 stations in Siberia. It is hoped that this cooperation, 

 which was unavoidably discontinued during the late war, 

 may now be re-established. 



The course of international organisations does not ahvavs 

 run smoothly. The efforts made toward cooperation in 

 earthquake records have unfortunately led to differences of 

 opinion, which have hitherto prevented a truly international 

 system being formed ; and if I give a short historical 

 account of the circumstances which have led up to these 

 differences it is only in the hope that this may help to 

 remove them. The scientific investigation of earthquakes 

 may be said to have begun when British professors of 

 physics, engineering, and geology were appointed at the 



Imperial College of Engineering in Tokio. Some of them, 

 on returning home, succeeded in interesting the British 

 Association in the subject, liver since 1880 that associ- 

 ation has been an active supporter of seismic investi- 

 gations. The much disturbed region of the Japanese island 

 was naturally the first to be studied ; but in 1895 Prof. 

 Milne, as one of the secretaries of the committee, issued a 

 circular directing attention to the desirability of observing 

 waves which have travelled great distances, and some 

 months later. Dr. E. v. Rebeur-Paschwitz, of Strassburg, 

 drew up suggestions for the establishment of an inter- 

 national system of earthquake stations. To this scheme 

 Prof. Milne and other members of the British Association 

 committee gave their approval. The cooperation which 

 thus seemed so happily inaugurated was broken by the 

 unfortunate death of its originator. Circumstances then 

 arose which compelled the British Association committee 

 to go its own way. Under its direction a system was 

 established which now includes about forty stations dis- 

 tributed all over the world. But the needs of different 

 countries are not, and were not meant to be, completely 

 satisfied by this organisation. 



There is always a certain number of earthquakes having 

 purely local importance and requiring discussion from a 

 purely local point of view. For the purpose of such dis- 

 cussion relating to the disturbances which chiefly affect 

 Central Europe, the Union (so-called Kartell) of the 

 Academies of Vienna, Munich, Leipzig, and Gottingen 

 formed a committee and did excellent work. In the mean- 

 time Prof. Gerland, who had succeeded Dr. Rebeur- 

 Paschwitz at Strassburg, had personally invited a number 

 of friends interested in the subject to a conference at 

 .Strassburg with the object of forming an international 

 association. This was followed in 1903 by a formal con- 

 ference called by the German Government, at which Great 

 Britain was represented by .Sir George Darwin and 

 Prof. Milne. This conference drew up a scheme for an 

 international association, and a large number of countries, 

 including Russia and Japan, joined. Strassburg was selected 

 as the seat of the Central Bureau. The matter came up 

 for discussion at the meeting of the International .Associ- 

 ation of Academies, which was held in London in the year 

 1904, and a committee was appointed for the purpose of 

 suggesting such modifications in the constitution of the 

 seismic organisation as might bring it into harmony with 

 the views of the associated academies. This committee, 

 over which I had the honour to preside, met at Frankfort, 

 and recommended a number of important changes, which 

 were unanimously accepted by the second seismic con- 

 ference held last summer in Berlin. In consequence of 

 this acceptance it appears that Italy and the United States 

 joined the seismic association, while England declared its 

 willingness to join under certain conditions, of which the 

 simultaneous adhesion of France was one. The following 

 summary of the States which have joined, and their popu- 

 lation, is copied from the official report of the last meeting 

 at Berlin : — 



Popula 



Contribu 



NO. 1915, VOL. 74] 



