METHODS OF FORECASTING THE WEATHER. 153 



formation of the weather, is announced 1)}^ the appearance of the sky, 

 sometimes for a longer, sometimes for a shorter time in advance, and 

 the skill of the weather prophet consists in rig-htly interpreting, for 

 the near future, the appearance of the sky and the weather conditions. 

 Since it is generally necessar}' in order to grasp the weather condi- 

 tions correctly, to have a clear judgment founded on long experience 

 in observing, together with an accurate eye, and, I might almost say, 

 an inborn quickness of perception, therefore there are as a rule onl}^ 

 single individuals in every community who enjoy the reputation of 

 being good weather pi'ophets. Certain phenomena, however, are of 

 so typical a nature that they have been reduced to lixed rules and are 

 everywhere expressed in popular language. 



Thus every country has its weather signs; if the clouds are increas- 

 ing, a storm or continuous bad weather is approaching. In every 

 locality there is one direction of cloud motion that betokens bad 

 weather, and another, generall}' the opposite direction, which portends 

 fine weather, etc. Weather rules relative to the red morning and 

 evening sk}" have been deduced. The rules that l)ad weather is 

 expected when in any given locality the sunnnit of a certain mountain 

 is covered with a cap; that a small " watery'' halo around the moon 

 indicates rain; that the weather will continue liad if, when the clouds 

 break up, a second light covering of clouds is seen a})ove them; that 

 it will l)e fine weather if, after rainy weather, according to the locality, 

 a certain wind sets in; that a slow breaking up of the clouds gives 

 promise of fine weather, etc. ; all of these rules have been fornuilated 

 from long-continued and accurate observation, and are exceedingl}" 

 well adapted for local weather forecasts from one day to the next. 

 Experienced observers also know from the color and nature of the 

 clouds whether the prevailing weather, notwithstanding otherwise 

 favorable indications, will continue or will change, and b}^ these deli- 

 cate distinctions they generally acquire the reputation of being 

 especiall}^ good weather prophets. 



These observations of weather signs led the way, however, to more 

 far-reaching rules which included the attempt to determine from the 

 weather conditions at a certain season of the year what the}' would be 

 for a long series of days; or, to determine from the weather of a sea- 

 son, or of a certain da}^, or a fraction of a day, the conditions of an 

 approaching season. Thus originated the so-called " farmer's rules," 

 among which are some valuable ones based upon good observations 

 extending over a hundred years, but in contrast to these there are, 

 unfortunately, man}^ poor ones for which we are indebted to the 

 superficial and frivolous rules manufactured by speculating calendar 

 makers. 



Others, however, went still further and, from observing that the 

 weather of one year resembled that of a former year, concluded that 



