156 METHODS OF FORECASTING THE WEATHER. 



full moon. However, the first and last quarters are considered of 

 greatest importance by a great many. Especiall}' clever observers of 

 the influence of the moon upon the weather pretend to have also 

 observed the distinctive individual influences of the phases known as 

 octants. In general the opinion is very widespread that the decreas- 

 ing moon exercises a weak and the increasing moon a strong influence. 

 Thus far the theory of the influence of the moon on the weather is the 

 direct I'csult of the popular belief in the moon, without regard to any 

 scientific basis. 



I am not able to state whether the growth of this popular l)elief was 

 preceded b}^ observations of the weather changes, and is therefore to 

 be regarded as a result of observations (it is not a question here as 

 to whether the latter were defecti\'e and inconclusive or not), or 

 whether, on the contrary, the belief in the influence of the heavenly 

 bodies and in that of the one which, after the sun, appears the largest 

 and most striking to mankind, namely, the moon, was tlie earliest 

 step, and that it was in the light of this belief that observations were 

 first made. At all events, the latter is far more probable than the 

 former, and therefore I can not put the moon theory of w^eather pre- 

 dictions in the same category as the methods mentioned in preceding 

 paragraphs. These latter methods were certainly based on observa- 

 tions (we sa}" nothing as to whether the <)l)servations were correct or 

 not); but this is not established in regard to the belief in the moon 

 theory; indeed, the probability is in favor of the contrary process, 

 namely, the opinion that the moon must influence the weather came 

 first, and observations only came later in order to see if the theory 

 were correct. 



This idea is strongly supported by the more recent development of 

 the theory of the influence of the moon upon the weather. This 

 newest and at the present time very prominent phase of this theory 

 did not start by collecting reliable observational data and deducing 

 from these observations the influence of the moon upon the weather, 

 but first adopted the, old belief in the moon and then sought to create 

 for it a scientitic basis by means of a priori assumptions and even theo- 

 retical mathematical explanations. 



With these results, either assumed or computed, the representative 

 of the modernized theory of the moon appt^ars before the pul)lic and 

 invites his contemporaries to test his '"results " b}' ol)servation. This 

 process is, as you see, the exact opposite to that of the true empirical 

 method. The empiricist makes observations, observes long and 

 nmch, and sums up the general results of the observations in certain 

 propositions or "rules," and when it is possible draws his conclusions 

 as to the cause of the phenomena. The modern n.ioon prophets turn 

 the process upside down. They designate the moon ])eforeliand as the 

 cause of the changes of the weather; from the various positions of the 



