1154 REPORT—1885. 
military establishments of neighbouring states would everywhere fall as soon as 
France had put down her army. The dictator would then break up France into 
seventeen separate intendancies as a step towards the ultimate Positive régime, 
under which the peoples of Western Europe are to be distributed into seventy 
republics, comprising about 300,000 families each. The third and last phase of 
the transition, which should occupy about twenty-one years, might be expected to 
be opened by the voluntary abdication of the dictator in favour of a triumvirate, 
consisting probably of a banker to manage foreign affairs, an ‘ agricultural 
patrician’ as minister of the interior, and a working man to take charge of the 
finances. Their names would be suggested by the High Priest of Humanity— 
indeed, Comte tells us that he had been ‘ working for several years at the choice 
of persons,’ in order to be ready for this momentous nomination: for the immense 
influence which Positivist doctrine ought to have gained by this time would 
enable the political direction of France to be placed completely in the hands of 
Positivists. This triumvirate would transform the seventeen intendancies into 
separate republics: the bourgeoisie would then be gradually ‘eliminated’ by the 
extinction of littératewrs, lawyers, and small capitalists, so that society would pass 
easily into the final régime.* 
I need not go on to this final régime: I have already given you more than enough 
of these extravagances ; but it seemed important to show how completely the delu- 
sive belief that he had constructed the science of sociology could transform a philo- 
sopher of remarkable power and insight into the likeness of a crazy charlatan. 
I trust that our Association will take no step calculated to foster delusions of 
this kind. There is no reason to despair of the progress of general sociology ; 
but I do not think that its development can be really promoted by shutting our 
eyes to its present very rudimentary condition. When the general science of 
society has solved the problems which it has as yet only managed to define more 
or less clearly—when for positive knowledge it can offer us something better 
than a mixture of vague and variously applied physiological analogies, imperfectly 
verified historical generalisations, and unwarranted political predictions—when it 
has succeeded in establishing on the basis of a really scientific induction its fore- 
casts of social evolution—it will not require any formal admission to the discus- 
sions of this Section; its existence will he irresistibly felt throughout the range of 
the more special inquiries into different departments of social fact to which we 
have hitherto restricted ourselves. It is our business in the meantime to carry on 
our more limited and empirical studies of society in as scientific a manner as 
possible. Of the method of statistical investigation I have not presumed to speak, 
as I have not myself done any work of this kind, but have merely availed myself 
gratefully of the labours of others. But, even so, it has been impossible for me 
not to learn that to do this work in its entirety, as it ought to be done, requires 
scientific faculties of a high order. For duly discerning the various sources of 
error that impede the quantitative ascertainment of social facts, eliminating such 
error as far as possible, and allowing for it where it cannot be eliminated—still more 
for duly analysing differences and fluctuations in the social quantities ascertained, 
and distinguishing causal from accidental variations and correspondences—there is 
needed not only industry, patience, accuracy, but a perpetually alert and circum- 
spect activity of the reasoning powers; nor is the statistician completely equipped 
for his task of discovering empirical laws unless he can effectively use the assist- 
ance of an abstract and difficult calculus of probabilities. It is satisfactory to 
think that there is every prospect of statistical investigations being carried cn, in 
an increasingly comprehensive and systematic manner, throughout an ever widening 
range of civilised countries. The results of this development cannot fail to be 
important from the statesman’s no less than the theorist’s point of view: for though 
the statistician, as such, does not profess to guide public opinion on political ques- 
tions, there can be no doubt—as Mr. Giffen has recently pointed out—that the 
knowledge attained by him tends to exercise on the general discussion of such 
questions an influence, on the whole, no less salutary than profound. 
1 These details are taken from Comte’s Syst?me de Politique Positive, vol. iv. chap. v. 
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