TRANSACTIONS OF SECTION F, 1155 
2. On the alleged Depression of Trade. By Professor Leone Levi, F.S.S. 
The paper criticised numerous essays upon which the author had been recently 
asked to adjudicate. The value of these essays did not consist in the discovery of 
any new method for the prevention or remedy of such depression—they did not 
expect that—but rather in their presenting a well-digested survey of the circum- 
stances which preceded and the causes which produced the depression. There was 
nothing new, indeed, in the occurrence of even a somewhat protracted depression of 
trade, Some have gone so far as to detect a connection between the solar surface 
and certain terrestrial phenomena, as between sunspots and the price of wheat. 
The causes of the present depression were variously stated by the different 
essayists. Among the causes mentioned are—the diminished production and 
consequent appreciation of gold; the heavy losses in agriculture consequent on 
several successive bad harvests, accompanied by competition of large foreign im- 
ports brought to this country at exceedingly low rates of freight ; over-production 
in manufacture, shipping, iron, coal, in fact, in production of every kind, the effect 
of improved plant and machinery, as well as of larger amount and greater 
concentration of capital; heavy Josses of national resources caused by numerous 
destructive wars, and the large war expenditure yearly incurred by the principal 
countries of Europe; extensive speculative investments utterly disappointing in 
their results ; an excessive expenditure in alcoholic beverages and the improvidence 
of the working classes; the restrictive tariffs in many States which intercept the 
free course of commerce and condemn nations to suffer, either from the exclusion of 
necessary or useful commodities or from excessive monopoly prices; the cessation of 
great discoveries, and the revolution produced by the greater speed in communica~ 
tion. Among the remedies suggested for commerce and manufacture are—the 
introduction of better machinery and improved processes in manufacture; the 
opening of new channels of trade, and greater economy both in production and 
distribution ; and for agriculture, a cheaper and safer system for the transfer of 
land, as well as greater stability of tenure. Only one essay out of fifty-eight was 
found to advocate fair-trade, and to bring forward reasons against the maintenance 
of our free-trade policy. A comparison had been made of the amount of trade in 
1873 and 1883; but 1873 was an exceptional year. For a sound view of the 
condition of trade a longer period was necessary. If they divided the last twenty 
years into four quinquennial periods, they found that, measured per head of the 
population, and comparing 1865-69 with 1880-85, the imports:show an increase of 
19°57 per cent., and the exports of British produce and manufacture show an 
increase of 11°76 per cent., while there was an increase in the total trade at the 
rate of 19°64 per cent. The total trade of the United Kingdom, which in 1865-69 
averaged 516,000,0002., rose in 1880-84 to 707,000,000/. But, while the declared 
value of imports and exports is determined by the prices, the consuming power 
of the people was best seen by the quantities received or sent out. The shipping 
returns showed that, whilst in 1865-69 the tonnage of British and foreign vessels 
cleared at ports with cargoes only to foreign countries averaged 14,614,000 tons, in 
1880-84 it averaged 27,673,000 tons. Whilst the population of the principal 
countries increased at the rate of 10 per cent. in ten years, our exports in value in- 
creased at the rate of upwards of 40 per cent., and in quantity at a still greater 
rate in twenty years. The best reason for low prices would be found in the 
increasing production of different articles, the improved facilities of communication, 
lower freight, &c. There are still a few, he trusted only a very few, who lamented 
our increasing dependence on foreign countries for the necessaries of life, and who 
contended that the excessive balance of imports over exports indicated an enormous 
indebtedness to foreign countries or an absolute loss in our exchanges. In their 
opinion, with a view to the greater employment of the labouring classes at home, 
and as a matter of simple fairness to the people of this country, we should prohibit 
or restrict the imports of manufactured and even semi-manufactured articles, 
including, for instance, wheat-flour. Nay, more, what they advocate is to do 
unto others what they do unto us, meet prohibition with prohibition, high duties 
with high duties, and bounties with countervailing duties. It should be re- 
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