192 REPORT — 1871. 



■we owe so excellent an exposition of the " Ethics," we should see in a remarlcable 

 manner how many of the most interesting questions of the present day were con- 

 sidered and dealt with hy those two wonderful men according to the varying lights 

 and tendencies which characterized their several minds. It is true that in more 

 recent times a great advance has been made in economic science, and one feature 

 and excellency of that change is the tendency to leave things as much as possible 

 to their spontaneous operation, and to the inherent laws of nature and society ; 

 thouo-h here again there has latterly been a reaction. It is to the credit of Scotland 

 that she has produced the two greatest leaders in this modern movement — David 

 Hume and Adam Smith — who are still high authorities on the whole subject, and 

 whose principles have been made the basis of much of our recent legislation. 



The subject of Statistics is added to the title of this Section as an auxiliary to 

 the main subject of economic science. 



Statistics and their Fallacies. 



The study of statistics, though not entirely of modern origin, has assumed a 

 special prominence in recent times. Statistics are certainly more of the nature of 

 a means than an end, and their great use and object I take to be to establish, by 

 showing the proportions or averages of results as they actually occur, the existence 

 of certain natural laws possessing the character of absolute or general uuiformitj'. 

 But statistics are liable to hazards, which it is most important to attend to and 

 guard against. It is a common jest that there is nothing so fallacious as figures, 

 except facts ; and, as generally happens, this jocular reproach has enough of partial 

 truth in it to preserve it in vitality. Two qualities of mind are employed in statistics 

 of very difterent kinds — namely, accuracy in observing and recording facts, and 

 wisdom in deducing inferences "from them. These two difterent faculties must act 

 in harmony together; and if they do not do so, fallacious conclusions will inevi- 

 tably be the result. Let me give some easy and familiar instances of the fallacies 

 that may thus be caused. 



lu the course of my duties as a judge of the Supreme Criminal Court, I have occa- 

 sion from time to time to find at circuit towns very light or even altogether empty 

 calendars ; and when there is no case to try at all, this is naturally a matter of 

 rejoicing for all concerned, of which the judge has the double benefit in having 

 nothing to do, and in carrying oft' a pair of white gloves. Latterly, however, I 

 have been led in such cases to make the remark to the local authorities, tliat a 

 light calendar was not an unequivocal sign of a satisfactory state of things in a 

 district, for that result might arise in two ways — either from no crime being com- 

 mitted in the locality, which is a just subject of congratulation, or from few or no 

 crimes being detected and brought to justice, though many may have been com- 

 mitted, which is a very deplorable condition of ailairs. Tliis consideration, I am 

 glad to say, was not called forth by any thing in the state of our criminal police in 

 Scotland, "but was suggested and illustrated by the condition of matters in another 

 part of the United Kingdom, where there was no want of crime, but it often led 

 to no prosecutions, from the inability of the law to lay hold of the perpetrators, or 

 to find evidence to prove their guilt. Xay, a deeper fallacy may sometimes lurk 

 under judicial statistics of this kind. It has been said, I fear with truth, that in 

 certain parts of the kingdom the very absence of some delinquencies of a special 

 description is the result of a complete subversion of legal authority. Agi'arian 

 crimes are perpetrated there in order to punish or deter those who exercise their 

 legal rights as to land ; and when this system of ten-orism is complete, the crimes 

 cease to be committed, because the evil organization has attained its object, and 

 does not need to be practically exercised, as no one dares to disoljey its lawless 

 mandates. The reign of terror is thus established by paralyzing the exercise of any 

 freedom of action which might incur its penal denunciations. A worse state of 

 society than this can scarcely be imagined, where lawlessness is enthroned and 

 wholly supersedes the law. 



Another example of fallacious inference from judicial statistics may be derived 

 from the history of our penal legislation. Until the middle or latter half of last 

 century, the proprietary feelings of the country, and specially, perhaps, of the urban 

 trading classes, incited Parliament to pass severe law^s for their protection, which 



