432 



REPORT — 1900. 



variability. Attention may be especially called to the fact that, except 

 for the disturbance due to the Leiter corner, the period of comparative 

 stability in the Gazette Average Price, stability in the sense of freedom 

 from violent fluctuations, sets in precisely at the time when the organisa- 

 tion of the futures-markets had reached that stage to which their op- 

 ponents attribute malign results. 



A comparison of the relative variability of prices in different centres 

 is also not without interest. In the following table the movements in 

 Berlin, New York, Chicago, and Liverpool are compared in each of the 

 last four years, in shillings and pence per cental of 100 lb. 



S.D. = Standard Deviation, M.D.M. = Mean Daily Movement. 



The restrictions imposed on Berlin ' business have not, apparently, 

 increased the steadiness of prices, which is a feature in which an influence 

 was anticipated by the advocates of the restriction. 



We have failed to find any conclusive evidence in favour of the theory 

 that prices have been depressed as a consequence of the development of 

 markets for future delivery business, and have found reason for believing 

 that in point of steadiness some change for the better is traceable since 

 the influence of these markets became great. These conclusions are in 

 accord with the deductions which a theoretic examination of the question 

 yields. 



In what precedes the word 'futures' has been uniformly used to 

 indicate the kind of business contemplated. The distinction between the 

 contract for delivery within a definite future period of time and the 

 contract which confers the right to demand that such a bargain shall be 

 entered upon at a definite price seemed to be conveniently made by 

 reserving the name ' option ' to the latter class of contract, although 

 actual practice in this matter is not quite definite and consistent. To 

 make a distinction not always made in practice seemed calculated to avoid 

 confusion. 



