842 . REPORT— 1900. 



3. Tile Economical Position of the Agricultural Labourer considered 

 historically. By Frank P. Walker, B.Sc. 



1. Historical sketch of the chief phases in the history of agricultural labour, 

 noting — 



The Black Death, some of its results. 



The depreciation of the coina2:e under Henry VIII. and its effects. 



Poor relief and the settlement and allowance (systems. 



Competition the farmer has now to maintain (i.) in the market for labour 



with manufacturing operations, and (ii.) in the produce market with 



foreign supplies of food. 



2. Three tables derived from replies to a form of questions attached to the 

 paper and sent to certain farmers of my acquaintance. These show : — ■ 



(a) An increase in the amount of land laid down to permanent pasture. 

 {b) An increase in the wages paid for the several kinds of piecework 



concomitant with 

 (c) An increase in the weekly wages paid for all kinds of agricultural 



labour. 



3. Notes on these replies, and conclusion. 



4. Trade Fluctuations. By John B. C. Kershaw, F.S.S. 



The author stated that this subject had attracted in the past the attention of 

 many minds, especially in times of commercial depression, and that the records of 

 the Koyal Statistical Society and of the Economic Section of the British Association 

 proved that the members of these two learned bodies had not neglected to under- 

 take their share in this investigation. But though some of the keenest minds in 

 the realm of economic science had attempted to discover the laws which govern 

 trade fluctuations, these phenomena of the industrial and financial world were still 

 largely unexplained. 



The currency, protection, free trade, war, famines, labour disputes, _ trade 

 unionism, radical governments, and sun-spots had been advanced at one time or 

 another as chief causes of the periodic depressions from which British trade suffers. 

 Each of these explanations had, however, on examination proved unsatisfactory 

 and insufficient to account for the fluctuations revealed when the trade figures over 

 a long period of years were subjected to scrutiny in the light of the particular 

 theory. 



One theory, however, had seemed to the author worthy of further examination 

 and inquiry, and for some months he had been collecting statistics bearing upon it. 



The theory was that first advanced by Sir William Herschel, and supported in 

 a qualified manner at a later date by Giffen,' Jevous,- and Binns.^ Briefly 

 summarised it was as follows : — • 



Normal trade between any two countries when reduced to its ultimate compo- 

 nents was seen to be simply au exchange between the commodities which they pro- 

 duced. The countries of the world might be roughly classified as those in which the 

 produce is chiefly that of the soil, or in which it is chiefly that of the hand and 

 brain. The agricultural labourer and the skilled mechanic were therefore the repre- 

 sentative human units of the two great divisions of employment, and all commerce 

 was merely the exchange or barter of the products of their activities. The volume of 

 trade must consequently be dependent upon the volume of crops if this theory of 

 commerce be correct ; and a series of bad harvests, using that term to cover every 



' Journal Royal Statistical Society, vol. xlii. p. 36. 



" CurTcncy and Finance, chap. ix. 



^ Joimial Manchester PhilosojjMcal Society, December 1894. 



