TRANSACTIONS OF SECTION F. 843 



product of tlie soil, must sooner or later have their effect upon the trade in manu- 

 factured goods. 



The trade statistics dealt with related to the value and volume of the exports 

 of the United Kingdom for a period of forty-three years ; and statistics relating to 

 the total world crops of cotton, wheat, and sugar had been sought, with only par- 

 tial success, for the same period. 



These three agricultural products were selected because they are those upon the 

 ample provision of which British industrial activity and prosperity appeared most 

 largely to depend. The period 1856-1898 was selected because during these years 

 British export trade had experienced most severe fluctuations, and also because the 

 nearer one approached to the end of tbe century, the more reliable and complete 

 were the statistics relating to trade and crops. 



The figures collected by the author in the course of his inquiry, with full infor- 

 mation as to their source, were given in an appendix to the paper; and for the pur- 

 poses of comparison they had been thrown into diagrammatic form, which was 

 distributed at the meeting. 



The curve showing the volume of our export trade year by year since 1857 was 

 marked by dips in 18(30-62, 1873, 1876, 1885, 1891-93, and" in 1897-98. 



The curve showing the volume of the sugar crop of the world whs marked by 

 dips in 1861, 1864, 1868, 1872, 1875-77, 1880, 1886, 1888, 1896, and in 1898. 



The curve showing the volume of the cotton crops of the four leading producinj^ 

 countries since 1870 was marked by dips in 1872-73, 1877-79, 1882, 1884-85, 

 1889, 1893, and in 1896. 



The curve showing the volume of the wheat crops of the world since 1876 was 

 marked by dips in 1879, 1883, 1885, 1888-89, and in 1895-97. 



Finally a compounded curve showing the total crops of cotton, wheat, and 

 sugar since 1876 was marked by dips in 1879, 1885, 1888-89, 1893, and in 

 1896-97. 



In conclusion the author claimed that the theory of a connection between trade 

 fluctuations and agricultural prosperity found support in the figures he had pre- 

 sented. Many causes no doubt combined to produce trade depressions, the mental 

 mood of bankers and capitalists — so ably discussed by Mr. John Mills before the 

 Manchester Philosophical Society in 1867 — being one of these, and sudden change 

 in foreign tariffs another. But the cause discussed in the author's paper was not 

 less important, and when fuller statistics relating to wheat were available he 

 hoped to continue his investigations.^ 



SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 8. 

 The Section did not meet. 



MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10. 

 The following Papers were read : — 



1. Municipal Trading. By Arthur Priestman, 



The recent action of the London Chamber of Commerce and the Royal Com- 

 mission. 



The commercial world does not object when the trading helps them in their 

 private undertakings. The increase and extent of municipal trading in U.S. A 

 and other countries. Sir Henry Fowler's figures and the Blue-book returns. 

 Comparison with capital invested, in co-operative societies. Reasons urging still 



' The Paper will be published in the Journal of the 'British Economic 

 Association.' 



