TRANSACTIONS OF SECTION F. 729 



from 20 to 55 millions in tlie one case, and from 40 to 135 millions in the other — • 

 partly due to annexation ; bat the g-rowth of France is no more than from 25 to 

 40 millions. "Without discussini^ it, we may understand that the economic 

 growth is equally if not more remarkable. The effect neces.sarily is to assure the 

 preponderance of European peoples among the races of the world — to put aside 

 completely, for instance, the nightmares of yellow or black perils arising from the 

 supposed overwhelming mass of yellow or black races, these races by comparison 

 being stationary or nearly so. The increase of population being continuous, unless 

 some startling change occurs before long, each year only makes European pre- 

 ponderance more secure. Equally it follows that the relative j)Osition of the 

 English Empire, the United States, Tlussia, and Germany has become such as to 

 make them exclusively the great world powers, although France, for economic 

 reasons, notwithstanding the stationariness of its population, may still be classed 

 amongst them. When one thinks what international politics were only a hundred 

 years ago — how supreme France then . appeared ; how important were Austria, 

 Italy, Spain, and even countries like Holland, Denmark, and Sweden — we may 

 surely recognise that with a comparatively new United States on the stage, and 

 with powers like Russia and German_y come to the front, the world is all changed 

 politically as well as economically, and that new passions and new rivalries have 

 to be considered. 



The figures also suggest that for some time at least the movements going on 

 must accentuate the change that has occurred. According to the latest figures, 

 there is no sign that either in France or any other European country which has 

 been comparatively stationary has any growth of population commenced which 

 will reverse the change, while a large increase of population goes on in the lead- 

 ing countries named. This increase, it is alleged, is going on at a diminishing 

 rate — a point to be discussed afterwards — but in the next generation or two there 

 is practically no doubt that the United States will be a larger international factor 

 than it is, both absolutely and relatively, and that Russia, Germany, and the 

 English people of the British Empire will also grow, though not in such a way. 

 apparently, as to prevent the greater relative growth of the United Sta.tes, and 

 notwithstanding perhaps some relative changes of a minor character amongst 

 themselves. 



The foreign nations then with which the British Empire is likely to be con- 

 cerned iu the near future are Russia, Germany, and the United States ; and other 

 Powers, even France, must more and more occupy a second place, although 

 France, for the moment, partly in consequence of its relations with Russia, 

 occupies a special place. 



Special Position of British Emjnre. 



Another Idea which follows from a consideration of the same facts is the 

 necessity laid upon the British Empire to consolidate and organise itself in view 

 of the large additions of subject races made to it in the last century, and especially 

 in the last twenty years of the century. In a paper which I read before the Royal 

 Colonial Institute two years ago, an attempt was made to show that the burden 

 imposed on the white races of the Empire by these recent acquisitions was not 

 excessive as far as the prospect of internal tumults was concerned. Relatively to 

 some other Powers, especially France, we have also been gaining internationally in 

 strength and resources. But whether we had gained internationally on the whole, 

 looking at the growth of Powers like Russia, the United States, and Germany, 

 and their greater activity in world-politics, was a different question. The problem 

 thus stated remains. It would be foreign to the scope of an address like this, 

 which must avoid actual politics, to examine how far light has been thrown on it 

 by the South African war. No one can question at least that the organisation of 

 the Empire must be governed by considerations which the international statistics 

 suggest, and that no step can be taken safely and properly unless our public men 

 fully appreciate the ideas of international strength and resources as well as other 

 considerations which are germane to the subject. 



