734 REPORT— 1901. 



Thus it is quite plain tliat something has happened in the United States to 

 diminish the rate of increase of population after 1860. Up to that lime the 

 growth in each census period from 1800 downwards had ranged between 33 and 

 36 per cent. Since then the highest rates have been 30 per cent, between 1870 and 

 1880, and 25 per cent, between 1880 and 1890. There is a suspicion, moreover, 

 that, owing to errors in the census of 1870, which were corrected in 1880, the 

 increase between 1870 and 1880 was not quite so high as stated. There is ac- 

 cordingly a somewhat steep decline from a growth in each ten years prior to 1860, 

 ranging between 33 and 36 per cent., to a growth first of about 25 per cent., and 

 finally of 21 per cent. only. The Civil "War of the early sixties naturally occurs 

 to one as the explanation of the break immediately after 1860, but the effects 

 could hardly have continued to the present time, and a more general explanation 

 is suggested. 



Other special explanations have occurred to me as partly accounting for the 

 change. One is that, prior to 1860, the United States at different times in- 

 creased its territory and population partly by purchase and partly by annexation. 

 But I cannot make out that either the purcha.se of Louisiana early in the century, 

 or the subsequent annexations following the Mexican war, would make a material 

 difference. There is a considerable increase certainly after the JNIexican war, but 

 it would be difficult indeed to estimate how much of the population of Texas and 

 New Mexico, which was then added to the Union, had previously swarmed over 

 from the Union, and had thus been from the first economicall}', if not politically, 

 part of the United States. Another obvious suggestion is that possibly immigra- 

 tion into the United States has fallen off' as compared with what it formerly was. 

 But this explanation also fails, as far as the official figures carry us. The pro- 

 portion of immigration to the total increase of population in each census period 

 since 1820, previous to which I have not been able to obtain figures, has been as 

 follows: — 



Proiwrt'ion of Immigration to Total Increase of Popiilatioii in the under me ntioned 



Periods in the United States. 



Immigration, according to these figures, has thus in late years played as 

 important a part as it formerly did in the increase of population in the United 

 States. Possibly the official figures of immigration of late years are a little 

 exaggerated, as tiie United States Government does not show a balance between 

 immio-ration and emioratiou ; but whatever corrections may be made on this 

 account, the recent ligures of immigration are too large to permit the supposition 

 that the failure of immigrants accounts in the main for the diminished rate of 

 increase of the population generally. The ten years' percentage of increase with- 

 out immigrants, I may say, varied before 1860 between 24 and 32 per cent., and 

 has since fallen to 14 and 15 per cent. Even if the latter figures should be 

 increased a little to allow for the over-estimate of immigration, the change would 

 be enormous. 



Passing from the United States, we meet with similar phenomena in Aus- 

 tralasia. Indeed, what has happened in Australasia of late has been attracting a 

 good deal of attention. The following short table, which is extracted from the 

 statistics of Mr. Coghlan, the able statistician of the Government of New South 

 Wales, gives an idea of what has occurred : — 



