/OO 



REPORT — 1901. 



Thus the increase between recent census periods has been sensibly less than it 

 was before 1850; and the slight Tecovevy between 1860 and 1880 has not been 

 maintained. We are thus in presence of much tlie same kind of change as has 

 been shown in the United States and in Australasia. 



It should be noted, however, in order that we may not strain any fact, that, 

 when the United Kingdom is viewed as a whole, Scotland and Ireland, as well as 

 the senior partner, being taken into account, it cannot be said that there is any 

 i'alling off in the rate of growth of the population since ] 850. For several decades 

 after that, in fact, the rate of growth of the United Kingdom as a whole was 

 diminished enormously by the emigration from Ireland, and the growth since I860 

 has been at a greater rate than in the thirty years before. There may be new 

 causes at work which will again diminish the rate of growth, but in a broad view 

 they do not make themselves visible owing to the disturbance caused by the Irish 

 emigration. Still the facts as to the United Kingdom as a whole ought not to 

 prevent us from considering the facts respecting England only along with the 

 similar facts respecting the United States and Australasia. 



These diminutions in the rate of growth of large populations, as I have indicated, 

 are corroborated by a study of the birth-rates, and of the rate of the excess of 

 births over deaths. 



The United States unfortunately is without birth- or death-rates, owing to the 

 want of a general system of registration over the whole country. This is a most 

 serious defect in the statistical arrangements of that great country, which it may 

 be hoped will be remedied in time. In the absence of the necessary records I 

 have made some calculations so as to obtain a figure which may be provisionally 

 substituted for a proper rate of the excess of births over deatha, which I submit 

 for what it may be worth as an approximation, and an approximation only. In 

 these calculations one-tenth of the increase of population between two census 

 periods, apart from immigration, is compared with the mean of the population at 

 the two census dates themselves, with the following results : — 



Airproximate Rate of Exce-M of Sirths over Beaths in the United States, calculated 

 from a Comfarison of One-tentli the Innrease of Pojmlation between the Cenmis 

 Periods, deductinfj Immigrants, with the Mean of the INitmbers of the Population 

 at the two Census Dates. . 



Thus, while the excess rate was as high as 21 to 28 per 1,000 before 1800, it 

 has since fallen to one of 13 only, or about one-half. AVhatever validity may 

 attach to the method of calculation, the real facts would no doubt show a change 

 in the direction of the table — a decline in the rate of the excess of births over 

 deaths from period to period, The decline in the growth of population is thus not 

 merely the direct efl'ect of a change in immigration, but is connected with the birth- 



