750 



REPORT — 1901. 



the marriages of that year, 20 per cent, of those of the previous year, 17"5 per cent, 

 of those of the year "before that, and so on, with percentages of 15, 12'5, 10, 7-5, 

 5, 3"75, 2'5, 1-75, 1-25, and 0*75. It will be seen that the ratio or number of 

 children per marriage has fallen from 4'36 in 1881-1884 to 374 in 1899, and 

 about 3-63 in 1900 :— 



The natality of Scotland fell in the same period from the same cause, though 

 the fall was not quite so great. 



There is no reason to regret the approach of a time when the population of 

 Great Britain will become stationary, but the cessation of the overflow of 

 population from Great Britain is a serious matter for the British empire, as the 

 natality of the British colonial population is low and diminishing. 



3. The Signijicaiice of the Decline in the English Birth-rate. 

 By Charles S. Devas. 



Great increase of population in England shown by the recent census — Character 

 of Increase requires examination — Decline of the natural rate of increase a result 

 of the decline of the birth-rate — This decline persistent in spite of a higher 

 marriage rate — Likeness to the decline of the birth-rate in France, in North 

 America, and in Australasia — Analogous decline among the Greeks of the second 

 century B.C. described by Polybius — How he accounts for it — Similar decline 

 among the Romans of the classical period — In the six cases of Greece, Rome, 

 France, America, England, and Australasia one common antecedent to the decline 

 of the birth-rate is observable, namely, decay of religious beliefs — Deductive 

 reasoning supports the inductive conclusion of a connection between the two 

 phenomena — How far John Stuart Mill's anticipations on population have been 

 realised in England — Groxmds alleged for the slow increase of the French popula- 

 tion — Possible special causes of low birth-rates — Striking difference of opinion on 

 v.'hether a low birth-rate is desirable or not — Problems before us. 



4. Correlation of the Marriage-rate and Trade.^ By E.. H.Hooker, M.A. 



The application of the theory of correlation to economic phenomena frequently 

 presents many difficulties, and most fallacious deductions may easily be drawn 

 from its careless use, notably with regard to such phenomena as involve the 

 element of time. The usual formula adopted for testing the correspondence of 



two series of variables is r= — ^' '- '^ ; in which i\, x.-, are the deviations of two 

 corresponding observations from the averages of the series, and a-,, o-, are the 



' Published in extengo in the Journal nf tlie R^yal Statistical Society, Sept. 1901, 



