220 REPORT— 1888. 



circulation at some initial epocli when there has occurred a general or 

 partial recoinage, or other event favourable to the formation of a precise 

 estimate. 2. Add thereto the coin issued from the mint in subsequent 

 years and the coin imported, and subtract the coin withdrawn from cir- 

 culation as light, the coin exported, and the coin used in the arts. 



On this method it may suffice to remark that, as applied to the United 

 Kingdom, it breaks down at the first step. For the only initial datum 

 available is the one which Newmarch employed (2). This is based upon the 

 fact that the light gold in 1848 amounted to 12,000, OOOZ., and the estimate 

 that the light gold formed a third or a fourth part of the total circulation. 

 But this estimate is too rough to permit much confidence in the result, 

 whether 36,000,000Z. or 49,000,000/. as the circulation in 1844. 



But, even if that datum were admissible, the reasoning would still be 

 nugatory, failing an estimate of the amount of coin used in the arts 

 during the last forty years, not to insist on the imperfection of statistics 

 relating to the export and import of coin (3). 



II. The general idea of Newmarch 's method is embodied in a somewhat 

 different scheme, which is largely employed by M. Ottomar Haupt (4). In 

 this second as in the first method we start with the amount of circulation 

 at an initial epoch, and we proceed to add thereto and subtract there- 

 from. But the mode of estimating the increment and decrement is less 

 direct. The influx and efilux are, so to speak, now observed at a greater 

 distance from the reservoir whose contents it is desired to ascertain. The 

 addendum is now the amount of precious metal imported into (or produced 

 within) the country : not specie only, as before, but also bullion and, we 

 may add, ore (5). The subtrahend is the precious metal exported, 

 together with that which has been consumed in the arts. 



The initial datum of this method being the same as for the first 

 method is open to the same objections. And the reasoning built upon 

 that loose foundation is rendered additionally insecure by the proved un- 

 soundness of the statistics which profess to record the exports and imports 

 of precious metal for the United Kingdom (6). 



III. There remains Jevous' method (7). His well-known reasoning 

 turns upon two data : 1, the proportion between the number of coins 

 of a certain date which are now in circulation and the total number of 

 coins of all dates which are in circulation ; 2, the absolute number of 

 coins bearing the assigned date which are now in circulation, or at any 

 rate a number greater than, a superior limit to, the number of those 

 coins. 



The first datum appears to admit of being determined with some 

 precision by the inspection of samples taken at random from the circu- 

 lation. But for the absolute number of the coins bearing an assigned 

 date it seems in general impossible to find a limit which is at once 

 accurate and serviceable. If we take as the limit the number of coins 

 issued from the mint during the assigned period, we are certainly on the 

 safe side. The number of coins issued is indubitably a superior limit to 

 the number of coins circulating. The superior limit to the total circu- 

 lation which is deduced from this datum may be accepted with peculiar 

 confidence. But this limit is too superior to be of any use for the 

 purpose of making an approximation. Thus Mr. J. B. Martin, operating 

 with the periods 1871-2 and 1876-7 respectively, has found by this 

 method, as superior limits to the circulation of the United Kingdom, the 

 figures 162,803,000/. and 182,321,000/. ! It seems to be obvious, from 



