222 



REPORT 1888. 



mining the proportion of light gold by an inspection of samples taken from the circula- 

 tion, and multiplying the quantity of light gold withdrawn for recoinage by the ratio 

 which the total circulation was found to bear to the light gold. The chief doubt 

 is whether the inspection was made sufficiently carefully. The materials for 

 a more accurate estimate on the occasion of the next recoinage exist in the 

 statistics relative to the state of our coinage obtained by Mr. J. B. Martin (' Journal 

 of the Bankers' Institute,' 1882) ; supposing them, of course, to be continued up to 

 the date of the recoinage, whenever that may be. 



(3) The returns of exported and imported coin published in the Annual State- 

 ment of the trade of the United Kingdom do not extend back to the year 

 1844. There is also the difficulty of estimating the amount of coin in the 

 pockets of travellers ; a difficulty which is perhaps peculiarly insuperable in the 

 case of the United Kingdom, owing to the currency of the sovereign on the Continent. 



(4) See ' Histoire Monetaire ' and ' VVahrungs-Politik,' by Ottomar Haupt. The 

 distinction between methods I. and II. is well defined by Mr. Kimbal, the Director 

 of the Mint at Washington, in his Report for 1886 (p. 46). 



(5) The import of Silver ore into the United Kingdom is not inconsiderable, as 

 pointed out by Mr. Giflen in the First Report of the Committee on Precious Metals. 



(6) As pointed out by Dr. Soetbeer (' Materials,' Exports and Imports, Taussig's 

 translation, p. 532), there is a total failure of consilience between the recorded 

 imports of precious metal into England from France and exports from France to 

 England, and vice versa. Not even when an average over many years is taken 

 does an appearance of regularity arise {loc. cit.). And we may add that if the 

 difference between the efflux from and influx into England — the datum with which 

 we are immediately concerned — be deduced from the English and French statistics 

 respectively, the results are still found to be totally disparate. 



The annexed table, compiled from Dr. Soetbeer's materials (loc. cit.}, shows the 

 net influx of gold and silver into England, as deduced from the English and French 

 statistics respectively (OOO's omitted). 



On the other hand the returns of the trade in precious metals between the 

 United Kingdom and the United States may mspire some confidence (Soetbeer, 

 loe. cit.). 



(7) ' Journal of the Statistical Society,' 1868 ; republished in ' Currency and 

 Fmance.' It is as if we should take the census of a population by, 1, ascertaining the 

 ratio between the number of infants, say three years old, and the population of all 

 ages ; 2, the actual number of such infants. This absolute number divided by that 

 ratio gives the total population. 



A brilliant application of Jevons' method to the statistics of the circulation in 

 France has been made by M. de Foville (' Journal de Statistique de Paris,' 1879 

 and 1886). 



(8) It may well be that the return of exported and imported coin, or rather — 

 what we are concerned with — the difference between these two amounts, is very 

 inaccurate for any single year ; but that in a series of years the errors tend to 

 tompensate each other. Suppose, for example, that for any single year the estimate 

 of the difference in question is liable to an error of Jiffy per cent. ; then the sum of 

 such dirf'eiences for twenty years — the sort of datum required for our first method 

 — would be liable only to an error of eleven per cent. In such a case the first 



